Shawn Porter has sparred Manny Pacquiao over 50 rounds and beaten Yordenis Ugas by a 12 round decision.
The former IBF/WBC welterweight champion Porter was the last guy to beat Yordenis (26-4, 12 KOs) in 2019, and he believes that Pacquiao (62-7-2, 39 KOs) has an excellent chance of beating him if he makes a couple of adjustments.
Porter is expecting Pacquiao to totally dominate WBA welterweight champion Ugas in the first six rounds of the fight, using his speed, movement, and combination punching.
Where Pacquiao could get into trouble during the second half of the fight, especially in the championship rounds.
Porter thinks Pacquiao will gas out in the last four rounds, and when that happens, he’s going to need to box to keep from getting beaten by Yordenis.
As long as Pacquiao stays on the outside using his jab in the second half of the fight, he can win,
Pacquiao with big decision to make
“I think it’s going to be a much better fight entertainment-wise than a lot of people expect,” said Shawn Porter to Fighthype on the Pacquiao vs. Ugas fight.
“This isn’t the fight that we expected, but I think we’re going to get a lot of action. Not the same type of action, but a lot of action. It’s going to be a good fight.
“I kind of got the inclination that it depends on how it goes for him, and if it goes the way he wants it to, I think he’ll consider whether to keep going,” said Porter when asked if Pacquiao will retire after the Ugas fight. ”
“Not to take anything away from Ugas, but at the level Manny has been on, it’s kind of night and day between the two guys.
“[If he loses] to Ugas, then Manny will have to reevaluate some things and decide if he really wants to keep going. I really think it depends on if he wins or loses this fight.
“More likely to keep going if he wins. If he loses, he loses to a guy [Yordenis], who doesn’t have a high punch output, who doesn’t punch in combination or have good footwork and a lot of the components to be on the level that Manny has been on for so long.
“I think he [Pacquiao] would have to evaluate some things and go from there,” Porter said.
It’s pretty obvious that Pacquiao will be retiring from boxing if he loses or struggles badly to win. Sure, Pacquiao can fight Ugas in a rematch and try and avenge the loss should he lose, but I don’t know if he will.
It’ll be such a traumatic situation for Pacquiao to deal with the mental aspect of losing to Yordenis. I don’t think he’ll be able to handle it.
Porter rates Yordenis below Thurman & Spence
“I would say a considerable step below,” Porter said when asked if Yordenis is on the same level as Errol Spence Jr and Keith Thurman.
“The reason I say that is Yordenis isn’t really a complicated boxer, and I’m not saying that because in order to be good or great, you have to be complicated.
“With Yordenis, going to the ring, my dad said, ‘You’re faster, your slicker, you got better feet. Use that all night, and we’re going to win this fight,'” said Porter in recalling what his dad Kenny Porter told him before his controversial win over Ugas in 2019. “That’s essentially what we did, and there are not many people you can do that with.
“Keith Thurman, if you go into the ring with him, fast hands and quick feet. If you go into the ring with that for two or three rounds, he’s going to make some adjustments, and the speed and the quickness might not be all you need against Keith.
“Yordenis isn’t that type of fighter. He’s just a really solid fighter and very good at what he does,” Porter said.
You can’t rate Yordenis below Thurman because he’s clearly past his best, hasn’t fought in two years, and looked poor against Pacquiao in 2019 in his two previous fights with Josesito Lopez and Danny Garcia.
Ugas would beat Josesito and Danny Garcia, and he wouldn’t have the problems that Thurman did.
Yordenis did a better job against Porter than Spence did, and that’s the reality. Although Yordenis didn’t win over Porter, he definitely deserved it, and he did a better job against him than Spence.
Shawn not impressed with Ugas’ power
“He’s a really good boxer,” continued Porter about Ugas. “If he can find a moment to touch you with some power, he might hurt you.
“So I think that’s what he’s got going for him in this fight. He’s strong,” Porter said when asked about Ugas’ power.
With Yordenis, there were times that he hit me, and I felt it, but there wasn’t anything alarming about it.
“There’s more strength coming from Yordenis than what people call power. Yordenis will have to rely on getting Manny’s body and then try and work his way up from there.
“He’s going to have to slow up Manny and not wait it out and get through some rounds.
“Early on, I think is when Manny is going to be the most dangerous, and if Yordenis isn’t able to get out of the way of some of that speed, especially that straight left hand.
“[Coach Ismael] Salas says he’s [Ugas] is the master of the southpaw, and I like hearing that because I think that makes the fight more competitive.
“If he’s not ready for that southpaw stance, then we’re kind of looking for the beginning and the end.
“The fact that Salas said today, ‘He’s a master of southpaws,’ that makes me feel good. That makes me feel like we’re going to get a much better fighter than a lot of people anticipate,” said Porter.
Surprisingly, Porter isn’t impressed with Ugas’ power because he dropped him in their fight in 2019, and he had him on the run for 12 rounds.
Porter fought like he was afraid of Ugas for the entire fight after getting hit hard in the first round. That was the first time in Porter’s career where he shied away from wanting to brawl with one of his opponents.
Yordenis won’t catch Pacquiao early
“Manny can start and finish an exchange with the best of them,” said Porter. “He’s always been able to do that. He can do that with Yordenis Ugas.
“The thing is, rounds eight through twelve, I don’t think Manny has the same kind of steam as he does early on.
“Later on in the fight, he needs to continue to move and use his jab and try and stay on the outside to force Yordenis to use his feet and hands together.
“That’s where I think Yordenis has problems. Certainly, he had problems with my movement, and I was able to move and punch, move and punch.
“Early on, Manny won’t have a problem exchanging and getting into a firefight with Yordenus.
“I don’t see Yordenis being able to catch Manny with anything early, but later on, in the fight, it’ll be a problem.
“It will be a problem [for Pacquiao]. I’ll go on record for saying that. The later this fight goes, it’ll be more of a problem for Manny than it will be for Yordenis Ugas,” Porter said.
Ugas can definitely catch Pacquiao early with his long arms and possibly hurt him.
Pacquiao will make it easy for Ugas to hit him by going on the attack and not fighting carelessly as he always does. Letting the crowd motivate Pacquiao could be a mistake because he will get hit a lot if he fights off adrenalin rather than ring smarts.
Pacquiao can’t gas out
“I think that Manny will have to keep his foot on the gas pedal, which I feel is kind of his Achilles heel now,” said Porter.
“Those moments come, and he pulls away. That could be a fact of his age. Maybe his age doesn’t allow him to have the energy systems or high rate of those energy systems that he used to.
“He used to be able to jump on guys and pounce on them and get them out of there. Now it’s, ‘if that didn’t work, let me get back to managing this fight.’
“Again, there’s no problem with Manny managing this fight, but the earlier Manny can get on him, the better for Manny,” said Porter.
The Pacquiao that we saw in his last fight two years ago against Keith ‘One Time’ Thurman clearly gassed out in the championship rounds, aside from the 10th in which he hurt Keith with a body shot.
If Yordenis puts a lot of pressure on Pacquiao early and works the body, he could take over the fight by as early as the sixth round, if not sooner.
Pacquiao’s ability to take body shots has never been as good as his ability to take headshots.
Luckily for Pacquiao, he’s fought pretty much exclusively headhunters throughout his career. Antonio Margarito, Ricky Hatton, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Erik Morales were arguably the best body punchers Pacquiao has faced.
But none of them were as dedicated to going to the body as Yordenis, and they didn’t have his punching power. Margarito had some power, but not to the level of Yordenis.
Assuming Yordenis focuses on throwing to the body early, he’s got a chance of wearing Pacquiao down and stopping him.
