Tonight, fans around the globe will tune in to what could very well go down as the “Fight of the Year” when American Gold Medalist, Andre Ward (30-0, 15KO’s) takes on Russian Sergey Kovalev (30-0, 26KO’s). 60 victories and no defeats between these two shining stars, although at the end of the night, one of them will face an element of the sport they’ve never quite been a part of. That element? The agony of defeat! As we prepare for this showdown, we take a look at Keys to Victory, Four to Explore, and an Official Prediction:
SERGEY KOVALEV – KEYS TO VICTORY
For Kovalev, there are certain things that will be extremely critical. One in particular could ultimately decide his fate tonight. That one thing is defense. Kovalev enters the ring as the puncher, so everyone looks at him to cause destruction. But the underrated power of Ward, particularly in close quarters could be more damaging than Kovalev and his team know. Kovalev will have to pick his shots wisely, avoid punishment, and be more methodical in his attack. A steady jab will be important, and he’ll need to pace himself to remain fresh late. If he can follow this blueprint, with or without a KO, he can earn a victory.
ANDRE WARD – KEYS TO VICTORY
For Ward, there are certain things that will be very critical when it comes to blunting the attack of a powerful puncher like Kovalev. It starts with a solid jab. Kovalev has a decent and very distracting jab of his own, but it’s not always accurate. If Ward can shoot the jab first and keep him off balance, it opens the door for everything else. Body punching will come at a high premium. Ward will need to stay deep in the pocket, smothering Kovalev’s punches, and avoiding his power. If Ward can win the jab battle, land his power, and smother Kovalev’s, this could be an easier night than anyone predicts.
FOUR TO EXPLORE – (CRITICAL ELEMENTS TO WATCH)
Lay On, Lay Off: For Ward, two things could very well control the outcome of this bout. One which he controls, and one which he couldn’t. Outside the ring, long lay-offs produced great inactivity. That inactivity produced rust. Rust in a battle like this could produce an “L”. Inside the ring, his penchant to lay-on opponents, smothering punches while landing his own has always been a key staple to victory for him. In a slugfest like this, which one will effect the outcome more? Laying on his opponent by smothering him, or the layoff which many feel smothered some of Ward’s talent? Tune in to find out.
Thrill vs Skill: There’s nothing more entertaining to watch in fight sports than a power puncher. And for the fundamentalist, there’s nothing more intriguing than watching a ‘Picasso’ talented artist paint another masterpiece on his canvass. The intrigue about this bout is the fact that this very storyline will play out right before our eyes. Power can be an ultimate eraser, but you can’t hurt that you can’t hit! Does the power of Kovalev overcome the cerebral prowess of Andre Ward? Very possible.
35, 35, 35 Club: Looking down the trail of stats between these two warriors, there appears to be a threshold that offers a level of truth that would dare either to attempt victory without it. Neither have had an opponent as tough as they’ll face tonight, but both men have been at their best when they tallied 35% or greater across the board in power punches, jabs, and total punches landed. The further these men have strayed from these numbers, the tighter the scorecards became. Which man will net 35 (%) across the board? And will it even matter in the end?
Warrior or Worrier?: Both of these men have had their fair share of challenges in the ring, but none like they’ll face tonight. Conventional wisdom says there will be ebbs and flows, but amongst the two, only one of them is truly battle tested. One historical parallel to this bout was Hopkins vs Pavlik. Pavlik was the puncher who hadn’t gone the distance much because of his power. Hopkins was the cerebral vet known to strip punchers of their power. If Kovalev is unable to land, does he abandon game plan lose on frustration alone? If Ward is unable to stop him from landing does he fold? Stay tuned.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION/UPSET BAROMETER (Rating 1 – 5)
Although the bout is scheduled to go 12rds, the winner could very well be decided within the first three (rounds). Ward will feel Kovalev’s power. Kovalev will see how hard it is to land that power. Ward will adjust defense based on that power. Kovalev will adjust based on Ward’s adjustments. One thing fans fail to realize is that it only takes ONE cerebral fighter in the ring to turn an epic clash into a chess match. It’s Kovalev’s job to win with his best strengths. It’s Ward’s job to win by taking away those strengths.
Anytime you have a clash like this between a vintage puncher and a vintage cerebral fighter, it’s always gonna come down to two things: Can the power puncher lands? How does he react and respond if he can’t? One other question added by default is whether or not Ward is willing to stand in the pocket to land his own? If the past is any indicator, I’d have to say yes, although he’s never faced a puncher like this. When the smoke clears, it’s a simple scenario. If the bout goes the distance, the ‘safe money’ says Ward wins by tight decision. If it stops early, we know who won’t be the winner.
ANDRE WARD via SPLIT DECISION (UPSET BAROMETER PEAKS AT 5 of 5. KOVALEV HAS EVERY TOOL TO WIN)
(Vivek “Vito” Wallace can be reached at 754.307.7747. Tune into tonight’s Facebook Live Chat after the fight. Check Facebook for start time)
