Paul Smith (35-3, 20 KOs) will be fighting for a world title for the first time in his 11-year pro career this Saturday night against WBO super middleweight champion Arthur Abraham (40-4, 28 KOs) at the Sparkassen-Arena in Kiel, Germany.
Smith, 31, has definitely picked out the weak link among the super middleweight champions because Abraham has already been proven to not be in the league of Carl Froch and Andre Ward. WBC champion Anthony Dirrell would likely be too much for Abraham as well. But Smith doesn’t have that kind of talent, so he’s going to need to use his intelligence to try and outbox Abraham rather than wasting time trying to put a dent in his sturdy chin.
While Smith does have some pop in his punches, he doesn’t have the kind of power that Froch, Andre Dirrell, and Andre Ward has. Those guys had no luck in trying to KO Abraham, so you can bet that Smith won’t get anywhere trying to knock him out either.
“This is my first and last chance to become world champion,” Smith said via ESPN.com. “I will not let this opportunity slip through my hands. I have had the best training camp ever, and my coach, Joe Gallagher, has devised the perfect game plan. Now it is up to me. I’m going to grab this opportunity and the title with both hands.”
The perfect game plan will likely entail Smith staying on the outside, using his jab and not standing in front of Abraham for any length of time. Abraham has proven vulnerable against fighters that throw a lot of punches and don’t give him any time to get his own shots off. Abraham is one of those fighters that waits until his opponents stop throwing punches before he starts throwing his own shots. Smith has never proven himself capable of throwing a lot of punches without taking a lot of rest breaks where he holds onto his opponents. Smith is better off boxing and moving to keep from getting hammered by Abraham’s big shots.
Abraham has a strategy that he follows in every fight where he attacks in the last 10-15 seconds of every round. He does very little until that point in the rounds. So if Smith can stay away from Abraham in the last 20-25 seconds of each round, he’ll be able to neutralize his efforts at stealing the rounds. Abraham doesn’t have the engine to work hard for 3 minutes of every round, and that’s why he only goes all out in the last seconds. With judges having short memories, they tend to ignore the work Abraham’s opponents do in the first two and a half minutes of every round and instead focus just on Abraham’s flurries.
