Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev return to Sin City with a storm cloud of tension and drama lingering as they prepare to engage in the much anticipated rematch. Who will improve upon their performance from a razor-tight first meeting that drew a wide range of scoring throughout social media? Can Kovalev find a way to gain back the momentum he held? Will Ward’s versatility stifle Sergey ‘The Krusher’ Kovalev’s attack having already experienced it a full 12 rounds?
It’s too bad Ward vs. Kovalev 1 was on HBO PPV because the fight superseded expectations but had its exposure shrunk. Had the first run broadcasted on regular HBO it may have done a high enough rating to help sell a rematch on PPV. Instead many common or casual fans didn’t see it and currently focused on the recent Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor news.
Truth being told it’s irritating as a fan of this sport that more people don’t even know or care about this rematch. That said it doesn’t take away from the intrigue based off the ebbs and flows back in November. Let’s talk about a few keys from the first go round and some adjustments each boxer has to make.
The first two rounds belonged solely to Sergey Kovalev as did a lead heading in to the second half. Kovalev’s jab was crispy per-usual, and it seemed to hurt or at least trouble Ward every single time it landed. Mistakes in the early goings were made by both men. Kovalev didn’t take full advantage of the knockdown he scored in the 2nd round. Not necessarily the closing moments of the second round but the next few rounds after dropping the Oakland native.
Ward’s issue in the early stages was standing in front of Kovalev for long of stretches without throwing punches. He also didn’t use his jab to set up offense settling on lead left hooks that missed badly. To be fair Ward’s swollen knee sparking back up in training camp could explain his lack of movement.
Slowly but surely Andre pecked away with a decent jab and some basic lateral movement. Ward was able to work his way on the inside in effort of making an ugly fight and limit Kovalev’s mid-range game which he prefers. Once inside Ward made Sergey uncomfortable by getting to the body with heavy shots and punching with his free hand on the clinch. The only thing Kovalev could do in the trenches was put Ward in a headlock but failed to consistently land much.
Kovalev should definitely keep that effective lock intact but this time punch Ward to the body as a deterrent to muck up the action. Ward could up the rate of usage on his jab overall but especially on the way inside.
In the second half beyond a strong 10th round by Kov, Ward mixed an inside/out approach and landed his right hand to the body brilliantly. Kovalev will need to keep his jab pumping and constant pressure while Ward has to use both hands.
Now it’s time to address the tension and drama-filled outside of the ring items. Kovalev claims to have over-trained for his last two fights. Claims such as this can be taken as reasons or excuses and this particular one may fall somewhere in between. If Kovalev was running 14-miles repeatedly in the last two camps his claim is valid and could be a key factor for slowing down. However, it’s Sergey’s own fault for not making a change in the Ward camp. The proof will be evident in the ring on Saturday and it’s apparent that Andre Ward had a better camp judging by his physique.
The other item is Kovalev’s trainer John David Jackson and a few problems they had on fight night and prior to this rematch being signed. Regardless of what really happened between Andre Ward’s camp and Jackson, obviously things aren’t all peachy-keen with Kovalev. Jackson wasn’t allowed to directly talk to Sergey in the first bout he was told to run it thru the interpreter who basically took over head coaching duties or at least shared them. Conflict amongst a team can create distractions on fight night.
The rematch should play out at least similarly to the first bout in the form of competitiveness within the rounds. A case could be made for a clearer victor, who ever that may be the final round-tally won’t tell the whole story. Expect another strong start from Kovalev but without the knockdown. If he does hurt Ward again in the beginning he will likely get the job done this time. In a close fight don’t be surprised if the judges give Kovalev the benefit of the doubt this time.
In a neck and neck matchup the percentages favor the more versatile fighter. Both men are elite level pugilist’s, the only thing that separates them is Ward’s inside/out ability. By the mid-rounds look for Andre Ward to take enough control of this fight to sway the judges once again let’s say 8-4/7-5.
My Official Prediction is Andre Ward by Split-Decision.
Side Note: Guillermo Rigondeaux faces undefeated Moises Flores in the co-feature for the HBO PPV on Saturday. A deal is also being finalized for an online PPV, so be on the lookout all you cable-cutters and those who will be on the go.
Written by Chris Carlson Host of the Rope A Dope Radio Podcast available at blogtalkradio.com/ropeadoperadio Subscribe on Apple Podcasts (iTunes), Player.FM, Tunein, & Stitcher. Visit The Rope A Dope Podcast YouTube Channel & Follow on Twitter @RopeADopeRadio
