03.03.06 – By Michael Montero: This Saturday night in Manchester, the undefeated Jeff “Left Hook” Lacy (21-0, 17 KOs) and Joe Calzaghe (40-0, 31 KOs) will fight to unify the IBF, WBO and IBO world titles in the Super Middleweight division. Although this fight may not be a “mainstream” PPV hit such as the Mosley-Vargas fight last weekend and the Morales-Pacquiao rematch earlier this year, it is without a doubt the biggest match-up of 2006 amongst hard-core boxing enthusiasts. This is a tough one to call, but after reviewing both fighters inside and out, it is my opinion that Jeff Lacy has to be favored to return to the USA victorious. Here’s how I break down the comparison….
Jeff Lacy: 28 years of age – 74” reach – 5’9” – undefeated
Joe Calzaghe: 33 years of age – 73” reach – 5’11 ½” – undefeated
SIZE – Advantage: Lacy
Although Calzaghe is listed at 2 ½” taller, he gives up an inch in reach to his opponent. Lacy is more compact and dense, and based on what we’ve seen in recent fights, carries more power and weight in his punches. His compact size makes him a smaller target to hit, and gives him more leverage on those short, inside power shots. Lacy is without a doubt one of the hardest hitters (pound for pound) in the boxing game today.
MOMENTUM – Advantage: Lacy
Lacy is coming into his physical prime at 28 while his opponent, five years older at 33, is on his way down. Calzaghe has fought just four times in the past two years while struggling with injuries, compared to six fights in the past 21 months for Lacy. And while the WBO titlist has hit the canvas twice in his last five fights, the younger Lacy is yet to be knocked down. In fact the Florida native has only been buzzed once, by Omar Sheika, in what proved to be his toughest fight as a pro thus far. Two of Calzaghe’s last three fights have resulted in decision victories, while Lacy’s last three have all been dominant knock outs. Yet while those quick KO victories have given Lacy his fair share of media attention and momentum, they have not given him the rounds of work he needs to polish his overall game – which brings me to my next category…
EXPERIENCE – Advantage: Calzaghe
The Welshman has fought 40 times as a pro, compared to just 21 for the American. And while that does make him 19 fights older, it also makes him 19 fights wiser. Consider this: Lacy has fought past the eighth round only four times in his career, while Calzaghe has surpassed that mark in ten of his bouts. And while Lacy has defended his belt four times, Calzaghe has seventeen title defenses. Experience definitely favors Calzaghe here, hands down.
PROFESSIONAL RESUME – Advantage: Calzaghe
This is a tough one to call, and cause for much debate amongst boxing fans and media alike as neither guy has exactly faced “murderer’s row” when it comes to their list of opponents. Lacy’s most notable wins to date are over a 39 year old Scott Pemberton (who was just KO’d by the feather-fisted Peter Manfredo), a 34 year old (and largely inactive) Robin Reid, a tough and determined Omar Sheika (who gave him his biggest scare) and Syd Vanderpool – whom he defeated to earn the vacant IBF belt. Calzaghe’s resume may read a little better on paper as he beat younger, fresher versions of Robin Reid and Omar Sheika in 1999 and 2000, respectively. He also defeated the tough Chris Eubank back in 1997 to earn the vacant WBO belt (which he’s held onto ever since), and has victories over former WBA titlist Bryon Mitchell and former IBF titlist Charles Brewer. But consider this: Calzaghe has NEVER fought outside of Europe, and his biggest victories were years ago. All things considered, the resumes are almost even, and it’s obvious that both of these guys will be facing their toughest challenge as professional fighters come this Saturday night.
FIGHT LOCATION AND TIME – Advantage: Lacy
Some of you may be scratching your heads right now wondering how Jeff Lacy, who has flown “across the pond” into enemy territory, and has to “adjust” to English time, can have the advantage here. It’s simple, with the fight being in Calzaghe’s back yard, the pressure is on him to perform well and appease the crowd. And while the fight is starting at 2:00am English time (Calzaghe’s normal time zone), it will be 9:00pm Eastern in the states (Lacy’s normal time zone). Lacy’s training schedule has not changed as his team is keeping him synced-up with the “American” time clock. When he steps into the ring this Saturday, it will feel like its prime time to him. The real adjustment has to be made by Calzaghe and his team as he’s the one fighting at an “odd” time.
FIGHTING STYLE – Advantage: Lacy
Lacy loves it dirty in the inside, and Calzaghe has shown that he can be vulnerable to taking short power shots when being in close with his opponent. Byron Mitchell floored Calzaghe for the first time in his career with just such a shot, and we all know that Lacy hits harder than Mitchell ever did. Another flaw in the Welshman’s arsenal is that he has a tendency to throw wide punches, and I mean W-I-D-E – that can get a man in trouble when fighting Jeff Lacy. If Joe throws something a little too wide and Jeff can squeeze one of those signature left hooks in there it will be good night! All that being said, Calzaghe is the better boxer, and has the style (when probably utilized) to neutralize Lacy’s one-dimensional power attack. If he stays outside, boxes, and lands that jab on Lacy’s eyes and nose all night; he could coast and stay in control. After breaking his opponent down well into the championship rounds, Calzaghe does possess the power to stop the American late. All things considered I still give a slight edge to Lacy here.
Conclusions
What kind of writer would I be if I didn’t make a prediction? Looking at my categorical review, I have it 4-2 for Lacy, and if I were a betting man I’d put my money on “Left Hook” to win via mid-to-late rounds TKO. I expect the younger, physically stronger man to constantly pressure his opponent, and begin to land significant shots at the fight moves into the middle rounds. At the same time, I don’t count Calzaghe out for a second! If he can stay on the outside and paint Lacy with jabs and looping hooks all night, he can pull out his career defining victory and prove all the critics wrong. The sad thing is that this could become a lose-lose situation for Calzaghe: if he wins his detractors will probably claim Lacy was just too green and inexperienced, if he loses they’ll claim he was just another protected European belt holder and nothing more. On the other hand it’s a win-win for Lacy: if he wins he just beat the man, and thus will become the man, in fact he’ll become America’s newest and brightest young boxing star – if he loses he’ll have lost to the top guy in the division, in his backyard, with dignity and honor. Everything is lined up for Lacy now; the exposure, the media, the money, the networks, it’s all there for the taking. This is truly his chance to step into superstardom – this is truly his fight to lose.
Champ or Undisputed Champ?
The winner of this fight moves into the top ten pound for pound rankings and thus opens the possibilities to big money fights with the likes of Antonio Tarver, Roy Jones Jr. and maybe even the old man himself, Bernard Hopkins. Yet while the victor will undoubtedly be the champion at Super Middleweight, he will not be the undisputed champion until he fights and defeats Mikkel Kessler. The good looking Dane, also undefeated at 37-0, is younger (26) and bigger (6’1”) than both Lacy and Calzaghe, while holding victories over former WBC titlist Eric Lucas and WBA titlist Anthony Mundine. Mark my words, this kid is for real. In this writer’s opinion the Super Middleweight division will not have an undisputed champion until we see the winner of Lacy-Calzaghe fight “The Viking Warrior”.
If you’re excited about this fight, you should be; it has the potential to be a classic. Thoughts, comments and suggestions – you know what to do, ciao.
mike@michael-montero.com