10.03.06 – By Izyaslav “Slava” Koza: Nowadays, prediction making has lost some of its luster because of the fact that writers, and critics, for the most part, can’t embed themselves in training camps. Take, for example, when Rustam Nugaev recently took out that tall drink of water called, Mora, sure there may have been some who predicted a 5th round TKO, yet probably not the reason for it. What I mean is, had there been somebody following Mora through training camp, they would see he was not prepared enough for the fight at that weight. This is really why I don’t see a sense in making hardcore, stick to your guns predictions, because there are just so many variables to consider that it doesn’t mean much (unless you put money on it) even if you are right.
For instance, though my official prediction was not posted in an article before the fight due to high traffic to the site, I did, in fact, pick Calzaghe to win by decision. However, the truth is, I thought the fight would be more competitive and since it was fought in Britain, where there might be issues with scoring from a purely statistical standpoint. So, although I picked Calzaghe to win, my prediction wasn’t really “correct,” from a reasoning standpoint.
To make my point, though, since it is for fun, and I do enjoy sounding important, I will make some predictions for the upcoming heavyweight fights. However, the twist I wanted to add to the story is that rather then telling you why I picked who and how to win, I will attempt to explain what the other guy has to do in my mind to come out on top. Even then, of course, that doesn’t put an exclamation point on it, but I thought it would seem interesting to approach predictions this way. So, without further ado, here goes:
TITLE FIGHTS
James Toney – Hasim Rahman
My Pick: James Toney
In order for Hasim Rahman to win this fight, he has to do one thing and that is, “run.” From my lookout, he has to get on his bike, as early as possible, much like Roy Jones did against Toney, and attempt to outbox the more skilled Toney from the outside, banking rounds, rather than looking to mix it up and ending up getting schooled. The problem is James Toney is not in shape and is also older than Rahman, which is a weakness yet to be exploited, I think. James Toney likes to piss the holy hell out of all his opponents, for many reasons, but most importantly, I think it’s to get his opponents into a furious, get even mindset, where they’re not thinking clearly, and forget all the boxing skills that they’ve learned. Toney wants them to come at him, considering that he is no longer able to bounce around the ring and use foot movement like he did in his early years. So, like an over-sized spider, Toney needs for his opponents to come to him, and thrives on standing there, not having to “hustle.” Clearly, it’s a plan that has worked for him in the past nine years, as he’s only lost once during that time. Although, to be honest, he hasn’t faced a pure boxer during all that time, with John Ruiz coming the closest, which gives you an idea of the kind of fighters Toney has faced during that time.
See, the thing is, all these bigger fighters think they can bully Toney around, just because they are naturally bigger than him. Yet, what they are forgetting is he is big, too, and if a larger figher is foolish enough to attempt to fight Toney on the inside, thus giving up his own advantage, then even if Toney is somewhat fat, he knows how to use it, anyway. However, if they use their reach, height, and their athleticism to run around the ring, and force Toney to move and come to them, that might take it’s toll on his body, and tire him out. That tactic, in my opinion, is better then letting Toney just lay on the ropes, basically immobile, other than upper body and head movements, and making his opponent miss punch after punch, looking bad. Hey, maybe it won’t, James Toney is a “boxing God” freak of nature, because he thrives on pissing people off so they disrespect him and try to come at him. If Hasim Rahman is looking to win the fight I believe that is his best option. If he is looking to make a statement and that feud they have is really real, then my prediction is he won’t, and that will play right into Toney’s hands.
Rahman’s power is overrated, in the sense that, yes, he does have some, but it’s not as deadly as advertised. Lennox Lewis stuck his chin out and let his guard down for the one shot that had Rahman’s all in it. James Toney will not do that, so Hasim Rahman should look for winning rounds and tiring the man out, rather then coming in there to prove a point. Like I said, I still may be wrong because both guys may know all this and prepare contingencies, but once that bell rings, I imagine all planning goes out the window and the fight takes its normal natural pace because they get tired and start acting on instinct. The question is, will the instinct they build up in training make them act correctly in the ring.
Lamon Brewster vs. Sergei Lyakhovich
My Pick: Sergei Lyakhovich
I know the first instinct people will have is “oh yeah, Slava picked the white Euro guy,” but, hey, that reaction is natural, I guess. In any case, rather then defend my decision, I will explain what I think Brewster has to do to win this.
Lamon Brewster does carry potentially great power, but not exactly the correct boxing vehicle to deliver it, however. Sure, in a street fight, picking against him would be funny, but this is a boxing match and I think Lyakhovich will try to realize that difference. One this is clear, Brewster is outboxable, and no matter what people say, he has been made to look foolish in instances by Kali Meehan, Clifford Ettiene, Charles Shufford, and, of course, Wladimir Klitschko, who unloaded a ghastly amount of punches in his fight against Brewster, all vicious head shots, that made him look like a human punching bag. Nevertheless, Brewster survived and won the bout, but absorbing that kind of punishment can’t be good for his future health, in my opinion. In Brewster’s last fight against Krasniqui, he was also not doing well up to the knockout, getting outworked, yet Brewster won that fight, too, stopping a weary Krasniqi in the 9th round. This only leaves the Golota fight, but again, Golota has been embarrassed so many times it’s just not funny.
I know this may seem like Brewster bashing but it’s the way I see this guy fight. This does not excuse Lyakhovich, either, who gets lazy and complacent in the ring as well. Against Friday Ahunanya, while clearly winning, Lyakhovich got caught by a huge shot late in the fight and to be perfectly frank, it was some silly haymaker, he should have seen and avoided. Same seemed to go for Guinn, who caught him at times in their fight.
From my perspective, Lamon Brewster’s power is much better than that of Ahunanya and Guinn, as well as his ability to carry some form of it late. In order to win, I think Brewster has to find an instance where Lyakhovich drops his mental guard, and then unload on him with one of Brewster’s monstrous left hooks. The best way to do this, perhaps, is to do something similar to what he did against Krasniqui, and what some delusional fans believe he did against Klitschko; That is, attack the body. Against Guinn, although Lyakhovich won, he came in with a pot belly stomach and that may have very well played into his complacency in that fight, at times. I mean, it’s smart in a sense cause if he is going all out and he knows he is out of shape’ then he will just get tired and give up the tail end of the fight, but it is still a weakness.
I don’t believe with the Golota fight in retrospect, that Brewster can come in there and stop Lyakhovich early. It’s possible, of course, mainly because it probably has not been tried against him, but I think his team will consider the Golota fight and make sure he is ready for an early bomb out attack like that. Brewster should mstill try to bum rush him, I feel, since even if it fails, it will likely make Lyakhovich nervous and that will take its toll on already poor stamina. Nevertheless, it all depends on how much Lyakhovich focuses on preparing for that possibility.
My last point I wish to make on the fight is, as always, there is a possibility there might be issues with judges and scoring. Lamon Brewster is the more marketable as a fighter, to be honest. He has some big KO’s, and has a powerful promoter. Lyakhovich just cannot compete with that. This may be an issue the judges keep in the back of their mind. Like it or not, against Meehan, I believe that is what happened, and whether people realize that or not, it’s an advantage to Brewster, from my view of things.
Wladimir Klitschko vs. Chris Byrd
My Pick: Wladimir Klitschko
Chris Byrd’s best bet is to make Klitschko outwork himself. something he has a tendency to do. This is the reason why Byrd was able to be competitive against the bigger Golota, and was able to beat the bigger Mccline, as well as what Byrd used when he fought and beat Vitali Klitschko, Wladimir’s older, now retired, brother. Like Toney, the shorter Byrd made them come to him, but unlike Toney, he made them miss completely with their punches, which takes an even worse toll on a fighter’s stamina. Then after dropping some early rounds, Byrd was able to finish more or less strong because he wasn’t swinging and missing like his opponents were. Instead, Byrd was standing in place, but his punches were lighter, and thus faster and thereby took less toll on his stamina.
Byrd also has to try to make Wladimir Klitschko think in there. Against Williamson, in the second worst TV fight I have ever seen, Byrd made Williamson weary of taking him to the ropes, as well as tired of throwing anything, period. This created a lot of dead time during the fight, unfortunately, and that allowed Byrd to take over the fight and win using a minimal barrage of punches.
Byrd’s last alternative is not really legal but since he gets away with it, we can discuss it. Against both Vitali Klitschko and Evander Holyfield, Byrd’s style of swatting away their punches, or the “catch and twist,” probably took it’s toll on their shoulders. I remember against Williamson, the same sort of thing went on, where each Williamson jab was basically swatted away by Byrd, and that was another reason why Williamson seemed so weary of throwing punches, considering that he could hurt his arm. If Chris Byrd can catch Wladimir’s punches in this manner, he might have a chance for a TKO victory based off of an injury. Now, Klitschko’s handspeed is, of course, much better than his older brother, Vitali, as well as Evander Holyfield. I think, based on Wladimir’s fast hands, there’s a real possibility that he can injure himself if Byrd picks off one of his punches, something he will do, probably a lot during their bout. To compensate for this, I see Wladimir taking off some steam from his punches, which will leave him throwing punches with little on then, making the fight even closer. With Wladimir throwing essentially soft punches, Byrd can get in close and land something of his own, perhaps connecting to Wladimir’s glass chin and stopping him.
Another thing, Wladimir has a tendency to drop his arms late in the fight, and who could blame him, seeing as he is so big and it’s not easy for a tall fighter to have good stamina, but that is a hazard as well. Byrd does have quickness and if Wlad drops his guard to shoulder level, Byrd could potentially exploit this by moving in and firing quick powder puff shots to get points more so then a knockout.
NON-TITLE FIGHTS
Samuel Peter vs. Julius Long
My Pick: Samuel Peter
Julius Long (14-7, 12 KO’s) is tall, really tall, standing seven feet tall, which is what makes the fight so intriguing. He isn’t particularly a big puncher, but height is always a decent enough advantage.
It’s not surprising that since he probably won’t have good leverage to hurt Peter with single shots, he should focus on outboxing him.
For the most part, Samuel Peter is at his most dangerous early in the fight, throwing viscious hooks with either hand, although he has shown a tendency to lose a little steam as it wears on. However, by that time, he usually has laid a good enough beating on his foes, that it doesn’t matter. If he’s smart, Julius Long should try to copy what Wladimir Klitschko did, which is box and clinch, but clinch in such a way as to avoid Peter from getting room to rabbit punch to the back of the head, something he did numerous times in his fight against Wladimir Klitschko. Visually speaking, that sort of holding crap is mostly useless to fans and viewers but if Long wins the fight thanks to it, then he won’t really care, will he? That is a bit of a digression for all you new found Calzaghe groupies, who think I called him a cheat, or was upset over Lacy losing the fight. Deal with it, Calzaghe held too much in the Lacy fight, so I got to call them like I see them.
At any rate, Long should also watch out for body shots, as that is what team Peter might try to focus on if they can’t blast him out with one or two good, or possibly bad rabbit, shots to the head.
Tye Fields vs. Ed Mahone
My Pick: Fields
From what I see, Mahone seems done after the Akinwande shut out, yet he still carries power in all his wins and Fields lone loss was to an unknown who probably packed less of a wallop than Ed.
Basically, my advice amounts to the same that I wrote for Brewster. He should look for the one shot but prep his opponent by working the body and covering up well and avoiding his bombs. Also, he should try to make Fields move around more, as those big guys probably have issues with that and keeping up stamina.
Mcbride-TBA
My Pick: Mcbride
I have no idea who this dude will be fighting, yet I have a feeling it won’t be somebody serious, since it’s not being advertised. Can’t blame him, of course, since if he can’t get good fights, he he needs to fight anybody so he can stay busy.
Whoever the hapless victim will be, they should approach this fight from the same mindset as Mcbride approached the Tyson fight. In other words, Mcbride might get overconfident and make a mistake, and judging from his past history, he has lost to some real tomato cans, which means it very well could happen again.
Note: if by some miracle he fights somebody decent, disregard this, people.