Three Boxing Predictions For The Month Of September: Taylor/Pavlik, Dawson/Diaconu, Witter/Harris

kelly pavlik01.09.07 – by James Slater: There are a bunch of good quality and truly great fights soon to be upon us. Later this year we will be treated to mouth-watering match-ups featuring the likes of Joe Calzaghe, Miguel Cotto and Floyd Mayweather Jnr. While in the month we are now in, September, we are also in store for a trio of potentially thrilling fights. First up, on the 7th of this month, we have the agonisingly hard to pick Junior Witter-Vivian Harris bout, then, boxing on the same night at the end of the month, we have Chad Dawson against Adrian Diaconu and Jermain Taylor squaring off with Kelly Pavlik.

Talk about being spoilt this year! And to add to the quality of these fights, a number of them will feature unbeaten fighters.

No doubt there will be many articles to come with regards to the Calzaghe-Kessler and Cotto-Mosley bouts nearer the time of the first bell. And there is certainly going to be more ink devoted to the much talked about Mayweather-Hatton super-fight. In the meantime, however, let’s take a look at what we can anticipate in the coming four weeks.

First up, Witter Vs. Harris for Junior’s WBC light-welterweight championship. Boxing in Doncaster, England, next Friday, these two will, I believe, put on an exciting and memorable fight. Though their match-up isn’t one that instantly jumps out as a definite crowd-pleasing fight, this is what I think the two men will put on. Witter is a hard man to fight. With his switch hitting, sharp punches and speed, the defending champ can make anybody look bad. And though he’s not always hard to hit – at least not in the Floyd Mayweather mould – he doesn’t usually take too many shots. Still, in his fight with fellow Brit, Colin Lynes, Junior certainly did get hit too much for his liking. If that fighter – the under-motivated and over-confident variety – shows up against “Vicious” Vivian, he will be in trouble. And while to many fans Harris is known most for being embarrassed by Carlos Mauser back in 2005, that is most certainly not the real Harris. Before that debacle Vivian was a capable and respected world champion – having defeated the likes of Diosbelys Hurtado and Oktay Urkal (twice). Clearly then, when he’s in top shape, as he promises he will be for this fight, Harris is a formidable opponent for anyone.

Prediction: Witter, who is four years older at thirty-three, will soon find he is in with a Vivian Harris that is the best that he can be. With his speed just a fraction slower now than it was a couple of years ago, Junior will get hit what will seem an alarming number of times by the challenger. Unable to get into his groove, “The Hitter” will be the guy getting hit the most. Harris will punch his way to a clear unanimous decision win, and a second tenure as a world champion.

Then, on the 29th, we have a duo of world title fights that will feature two of the sport’s hardest punchers. The murderous hitting Kelly Pavlik takes on middleweight king Jermain Taylor, of course. While the equally hard hitting Adrian Diaconu challenges WBC light-heavyweight boss Chad Dawson. Can either fight possibly go the distance? Well, I think one of them will.

Dawson-Diaconu first. Chad has been knocked down before – both Eric Harding and, in his title winning effort, Thomasz Adamek decked the unbeaten twenty-five year old southpaw. Will this happen again when and if Diaconu hits him? Many reader of this very site have left comments in the recent past – even before their fight was even signed – that stated how Dawson would be KO’d by the big-hitting twenty-nine year old Romanian. Is Diaconu the real deal though? To be honest, his biggest win is his three round stoppage win over the exposed Rico Hoye. Look down Adrian’s record and you’ll not find too much else that suggests he has a great shot at beating the skilful Dawson.

Prediction: Chad Dawson’s southpaw stance, fast hands, formidable jab and not inconsiderate power, will prove too much for the still untested Diaconu. “Bad” Chad will box his way to a comprehensive and masterful unanimous decision. There will be no knockdown for him to get up from in this fight.

And finally, we have the middleweight shootout that has got the fans salivating – the Taylor Vs. Pavlik bout. Fans know the knock on defending champ Taylor has been that he’s boring – or at least has been in his most recent fights – and many are keen to see him beaten. Kelly Pavlik fits the bill perfectly as the man they’d love to see do it, too. With his almost constant aggression, awesome power and willingness to fight anybody, the twenty-five year old Pavlik is seen as the complete antithesis of Taylor. Still, being fair to Jermain, he has boxed a couple of very tricky guys just lately. Winky Wright and Cory Spinks are two fighters that could make anybody look bad, let’s not forget that. And Taylor’s skills are not to be underestimated either. The twenty-nine year old deserves respect; he is the champion, has boxed undeniably better opposition than his challenger and has promised to put on a great show this time. Will he though?

Prediction: I actually see two possible scenarios unfolding in this one. In scenario one Pavlik simply bombs out a slow starting Taylor inside five rounds. No doubt this outcome would please many fans. However, in scenario two I see Taylor lasting the full twelve rounds. Not in impressive fashion though. After tasting Pavlik’s frightening power in the early going, Taylor
will go into survival mode – from which nothing, not even the angrily-given orders of trainer Emanuel Steward, will bring him out. From then on in boxing in a negative way that sees him holding on throughout and throwing next to nothing back, Jermain’s only goal will be to survive until the final bell. Pavlik will try his best at annihilating him, but the champ will last home – under a torrent of boos. I hope this scenario is not the one that unfolds, but I have a sneaky suspicion it will. Either way though, Kelly Pavlik will be the new middleweight champion come September 29th.