13.09.07 – Even with the recent buzz-kills of the Marquez, Vargas and Klitschko postponements, the final few months of 2007’s boxing schedule are packed with great match ups that have everybody excited. It’s probably way too early to make predictions on some of these fights, but what the hell – here are my early picks (of course my opinions could change as the fight dates get closer and I get a look inside each perspective fighter’s camp)..
Taylor-Pavlik (Sept 29th)
Pavlik is younger, stronger, taller and has longer arms – but Taylor has a lot of big fight experience, not to mention Manny Steward in his corner. That being said, Pavlik is just too strong and motivated for the big time right now. Either way, the winner of this fight should crack everybody’s p4p top ten…
Prediction: Pavlik via TKO11
Maskaev-Peter (Oct 6th)
Peter is much improved, younger, stronger, more powerful and has a harder chin – Maskaev is 38. What does that mean? Anything less than a knockout win for the Nigerian is a let down for him IMO. I expect Oleg to do well early on, then catch a looping hook to the back of the head and go to sleep…
Prediction: Peter via KO7
Pacquiao-Barrera (Oct 6th)
Pacquiao is the hottest fighter on the planet and my p4p #1 – he SHOULD stop MAB again, but the Mexican legend will be very motivated for this fight. Is Manny coming into this fight in the best of shape? I doubt it, and that will cost him a tough night’s work. Still, I just can’t go against the Pacman here…
Prediction: Pacquiao via UD (in a tougher fight than expected by most media/fans)
Ibragimov-Holyfield (Oct 13th)
As much as I WANT Holyfield to win because it would be great for the HW division in the states, I think he would have to KO Ibragimov because he will NEVER get a decision in Russia. Problem is, he doesn’t have the power anymore to make this happen and Sultan can box a little. Translation? I see a lackluster fight taking place that most people outside of the Eastern Hemisphere will never see – it will do nothing to improve the landscape of the HW division…
Prediction: Ibragimov via UD (9 rounds to 3)
Calzaghe-Kessler (Nov 3rd)
Kessler is younger and taller but Calzaghe has longer arms, more speed, and way better footwork. I like JC to get off to a good start, despite having a few scary minutes early – then begin to pull away the late rounds in a really entertaining fight (after he masters his opponent’s distance and timing). The winner of this fight becomes a boxing superstar and a consensus top five p4p player…
Prediction: Calzaghe via UD (winning or 8 rounds)
Mosley-Cotto (Nov 10th)
Mosley is taller with longer arms, but he’s also 10 years older than Cotto. This fight is in New York and the Puerto Ricans will be going nuts for their boy – I believe that extra motivation, plus the benefit of youth, will give Miguel the slight edge in a wildly entertaining FOTY candidate. I see this one being dead even going into the championship rounds, but Cotto pulls out a squeaker with most of the media/fans split on who the ‘real’ winner was…
Prediction: Cotto via SD (in a fight that could go either way, the decision WILL be controversial)
Mayweather-Hatton (Dec 8th)
Floyd is taller and has longer arms – but he did start his career at 130 pounds and hasn’t fought a guy this strong, in their prime, since he fought Jose Luis Castillo at 135 pounds back in 2002 (people seem to be forgetting that). Plus, he’s a MILLIONAIRE and doesn’t have the same ‘hunger’ that Ricky does at this point in his career. He couldn’t stop Carlos Baldomir, who is practically the same size as Hatton (not too mention much older, slower and with far less power) – so what does that tell you? He’s also participating in “Dancing with the Stars” this fall so he’s not 100% committed to boxing, while Ricky is busy training for THE fight of his career…
Prediction: UPSET SPECIAL!!! Hatton TKO12 (with Mayweather ahead on the cards, Hatton stops him via tremendous liver shot – leaving many of Floyd’s supporters questioning the timing of the stoppage and demanding a rematch)
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mike@michael-montero.com
Ciao.