By John Martinez, IronBoxing.com: November 19, 2008 — December 6, the fight dubbed “The Dream Match” between the once golden Oscar De La Hoya and the now, very much in his prime Filipino sensation Manny Pacquiao will take place at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas airing on the media outlet that Oscar built, HBO PPV.
Originally, I wasn’t interested in this match up. What others were calling a “Dream Match”, I was giving lying claim to the moniker of “glorified sparring session.” However, after having repeated debates on this issue, I have now figured out what the entire buzz is truly about.
Oscar will lose. My recipe for Manny to be successful would require the little man to weather a vicious assault by De La Hoya early on. Oscar has a tendency to throw everything he has in the first four to five rounds. After that, he becomes flat footed and gassed..
Manny as we all know fights five minutes of every three-minute round allotted to him. He is built for the days when championship fights lasted 15-20 rounds, not twelve.
I also think that Pacquiao would be well served circling away from the daunted left arm of the “Golden” businessman. A thought that wasn’t lost on the Filipino warrior, but shared with me when I asked him what weapon of Oscar’s that HE was most concerned about.
“ I think it is the left uppercut. I should be careful of his (Oscar’s) left jab, but not just the left jab, but also the left uppercut. It is very dangerous.”
Manny’s ultimate job is to take this fight into the late waters in order to drown the part time fighter known as Oscar De La Hoya.
Before every fight, Oscar always claims that he is “in the best shape” of his life and that he has just completed “ the best training camp he’s ever had.”
And that being said, he always fades or begins to fade in the first third of a twelve round battle.
I asked the astute and former trainer of Oscar, the esteemed Freddie Roach what he makes of the older fighter’s stamina issue and he replied, “Well we are going to take him into deep water and make him work every minute of every round. Manny is very explosive and can go twelve rounds easy.”
When I pressed Roach for his views on the size and weight subject he said that Manny is currently “weighing 151(pounds) with a body fat of 6 percent.”
“Oscar will probably weigh in around 160 and Manny will come in at 150 or so. The ten pound difference isn’t going to mean much in the end.”
“You know, I’m convinced Manny can fight at 147 because he weighed in around that much when he fought Diaz and he was real strong and also, Oscar hasn’t fought at this (147) weight in years.”
Roach also told me that Manny got in great sparring work with the hard charging Amir Khan and that their sparring sessions were very heated and fierce.
“Kahn took it to Manny early on with his power and movement, but Manny would best him late in the sessions.”
Eric Brown, assistant to Freddie and Manny, said that “Manny will be too fast” for Oscar and that “he (Oscar) always has a fatal mistake of fighting small.”
I believe this is the key to victory for Pacquiao. Make the old man work for his hand to be raised by fighting Oscar with swift feet, head movement, staying off the ropes and eventually, making Oscar lean forward and fight small rather than tall.
My prediction is Manny will win on points or quite possibly a late stoppage around the 8-10 round via a wicked body attack to the part time, once golden Oscar De La Hoya.
john@ironboxing.com