by Geoffrey Ciani – The long awaited mega bout between former pound for pound King Floyd Mayweather Junior and Mexican warrior Juan Manuel Marquez is finally here. The bout was originally slated to take place on July 18, but was pushed back after Mayweather suffered a mysterious rib injury in training camp. Now the two combatants are ready to do battle this Saturday night on an HBO pay per view event. Who will win?
Like the majority of observers, I believe that Mayweather will win this contest. I have maintained this belief since the fight was first signed. That the fight was delayed has done little to sway my opinion. True, the extra time for preparations may help Marquez better adjust to the catch weight limit of 144 pounds. With an extra two month’s training camp he will probably be more comfortable at the weight. Still, at the end of the day, this delay is meaningless in the grand scheme of things.
Juan Manuel Marquez is not a natural 144 pound fighter. In fact, he has only had two fights at 135 pounds.. Although he looked tremendous in those two bouts, the extra nine pounds will prove to be far too much for the brave Mexican pugilist to overcome. Unlike his former foe Manny Pacquiao, who is a freak of nature that was able to move up in weight and remain effective (even arguably becoming more effective), Juan Manuel will not celebrate the same level of success against bigger opponents. His body frame and fighting style are simply not suited for this much weight, and it will show against Floyd.
Juan Manuel Marquez has also begun showing his age in recent fights. In his last contest against Juan Diaz, he managed to score a very dramatic and impressive come from behind knockout victory. Marquez deserves tremendous credit for this win. He fended off the pressure attacks being applied by Diaz en route to weathering the storm, wearing him down, and knocking him out. Despite this noteworthy performance, however, Marquez did begin showing his age in this fight. At times, he looked slower than we had ever seen previously, and he appeared to be more bothered and confused than we are accustomed to inside the ring.
The fact that Marquez is aging and attempting to jump up almost ten pounds above his natural fighting size is going to be his undoing in this fight. He is not just stepping into the ring against a fighter who is naturally bigger. He is also going up against one of the most physically gifted boxers of this generation. Floyd is bigger than Marquez, he is faster, and over all, he is a better fighter with a superior set of skills—and it will show inside the ring. Everything Marquez can do, Mayweather can do better. The only advantages Marquez has going into this one are heart and pride. He has faced adversity inside the ring, and he has proven his worth time and time again as a blood and guts warrior willing to do everything in his power to find a way to win. Unfortunately, his fighting spirit will not be enough to propel him to victory against Mayweather.
Floyd Mayweather Junior has not had a fight in almost two years. For normal fighters, this could be reason for concern. After all, fighters who are away from the ring often lose focus and desire. This is not the case with Mayweather. In fact, Mayweather’s entire ‘retirement’ was probably nothing more than a ploy. No serious fan of the sport truly believed that was the last we would see have him inside the squared circle. Most observers believe he always intended to make a comeback, and his own father echoed this sentiment sometime back when he was a special guest on the on-line boxing radio program On the Ropes. Floyd has never allowed himself to get out of shape. He is a gym rat who has taken great care of himself, so the idea that he might suffer so-called “ring rust” seems very farfetched.
On the contrary, I expect Floyd to come out as sharp as we have ever seen him. He is going to want to make a statement against Marquez. During his brief two year absence from the ring, Manny Pacquiao has replaced him as the pound for pound King in boxing, and rightfully so. After all, Pacquiao takes on all comers and has been doing so for a number of years, taking on the best challenges available and emerging victorious far more often than not. In his last two bouts, he impressively dominated foes who were naturally much bigger than him in Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton. Floyd is going to want to make a statement, and what better way to do so than against Marquez—a man who many feel deserved a victory against Pacquiao in each of their two previous encounters.
A big win against the man who made Pacquiao struggle both times he faced him would be exactly what Floyd needs to propel himself back into the boxing lime light. No matter how impressive he looks, it will not be enough for him to reclaim his mythical pound for pound title. That will still belong to Pacquiao until he gets beaten, which is a distinct possibility come November when he squares off against Miguel Cotto. It will, however, pave the way for what will almost certainly be the biggest fight in boxing history if Pacquiao is able to beat Cotto.
Marquez is an outstanding fighter. He will undoubtedly give it everything he has in this fight, and he will probably have his moments, too, but he is biting off far more than he can chew in this one. Everything Marquez can do, Floyd can do better. Mayweather’s speed advantage should be obvious from the onset, and once he begins landing accurate shots on Marquez’s face with more and more frequency as the fight progresses, it will only be a matter of time before Floyd stops him. Marquez is a warrior so he might well remain on his feet on the receiving end of a tremendous beating, but I suspect his corner will be forced to mercifully put a halt to the contest before we reach the final bell.
My prediction: Mayweather TKO9
To contact Ciani:
ciani@boxing247.com
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Be sure to tune into the on-line boxing radio program On the Ropes every Monday at 6pm ET:
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