By Erik Schaffer: This Saturday night Arthur Abraham takes on Jermain Taylor in Berlin, Germany and Carl Froch will defend his super middleweight title against Andre Dirrell in Nottingham, England as the much anticipated super middleweight tournament begins. In our first fight Arthur Abraham will step into the ring in his home town of Berlin, Germany against American Jermain Taylor as a -270 favorite. I do think thats a fair line when you consider Taylor has lost 3 of his last 4 fights and the fight is in Germany. Yes, Taylor has the better resume, but Abraham has shown the tools to be considered almost a 3-1 fav in his hometown against a fighter on the slide. Will the slide continue for Taylor? That’s the big question here and im going to give you the answer.
The first thing I want to do is take a look at the total, which is 11.5 rounds even money. That tells me vegas is expecting a long fight.. That’s a high total for Taylor considering he has been ko’d in 2 of his last 4 fights. But lets look at how Taylor has rebounded after bad finishes. He lost the last 4 rounds in his fight with Bernard Hopkins, but held on to win an SD. His next fight was a rematch with Hopkins, where Taylor won a close UD. In that fight he looked strong during the last 4 rounds. His next bad finish was against Kelly Pavlik as he was ko’d in round 7. His next fight was a rematch with Pavlik and Taylor lost a UD, but looked strong and finished the fight. Taylor is coming off a KO loss to Carl Froch, but I expect a strong come back effort from Taylor once again. I think this is a good style match up for Taylor.
Arthur Abraham is a very intelligent fighter with great defence and a solid work rate. He does have the power to hurt Taylor, but will he try hard enough to do that? I think the power and speed of Taylor can off set the amount of punches Abraham will be throwing. In this fight I see Taylor being the fighter in control and I also see Abraham landing heavy shots out of his tight defence. That recipe adds up to a very close, long and competitive fight. But I dont want any part of a decision in Germany with a non German in the ring against Abraham, so I will be taking the over 11.5 rounds in a fight i expect to be very close.
Prediction – Over 11.5 rounds
Carl Froch will step into the ring Saturday night in his hometown of Nottingham, England right around a -140 favorite to beat American Andre Dirrell. I think most people would agree that the low line is a shock. Why is Carl Froch only a slight favorite in his hometown? He has the better resume with wins over Jermain Taylor and Jean Pascal. He is known as the bigger puncher and the fighter with the better chin. So why is he only a slight favorite? Once again I will give you the answer.
I think the styles of these 2 fighters has to favor Dirrell. And that’s because the speed and power of Dirrell will cause problems for Froch. It will cause problems for anyone. On the flip side, Froch is the power puncher in this fight, but I think Dirrel has the defensive skills to deal with it. It just seems to me that Froch is a little to slow to hurt Dirrell. I did take Froch to beat Taylor, but Andre Dirrell is a different animal. He is a fresh, young and hungry animal.
Froch is good, but styles make fights. And I see this as a bad fight for Carl Froch in his hometown. He lacks upper body movement and that’s bad news when you step in the ring with Dirrell. And I don’t buy the fact that Froch was nervous at the start of the Taylor fight, which lead to him being knocked down and in serious trouble before he took the fight over and scored a KO win in the 12th round. The attendance that night was 3,726 people. I do buy the fact that Froch has problems with speedy fighters who have solid power. But he beat Pascal? Jean Pascal had all kinds of camp problems for that fight and it lead to him fighting a very bad fight. I knew about those problems and that’s part of the reason I picked Pascal to win the 175 pound title against Diaconu.
Froch beating Dirrell would not be a major shock to me, but my pick is Dirrell because of the defence. In a fight where fire works are expected I will pick the fighter I think has the better defence. And for those who think Froch will get Dirrell out of there early, just remember the total is 11.5 rounds even money. Vegas is expecting a long fight and I will take the fighter with the better skills and that’s Andre Dirrell. No final result play here because I will just take the slight dog money with Dirrell.
Prediction : Andre Dirrell to beat Carl Froch