By Coach Tim Walker – We are only a little over a week away from the mega-fight between super-charged Manny Pacquiao and heavy-duty Miguel Cotto and the anticipation is building. Threads about the fight are everywhere. I actually overheard a couple of 40-50 year age women talking about this fight and they knew what they were talking about. You got to love that.
With all the talk what can be said that hasn’t been said? Manny’s speed is well documented. Cotto’s ability to absorb punishment is known. Both fighters tenaciously represent their countries: Philippines and Puerto Rico. I heard an analogy of the fight as a Ferrari running head on into a Hummer and I am inclined to agree with that.
This fight will be potentially as dynamic as it will be volatile and explosive. Still, at the end of the day someone has to win and someone has to lose. This fight represents a career intersection where the winner will lay claim to being one of the greatest boxers of all time. The other, though his career won’t end at the final bell of this fight, will definitely be viewed differently..
For Manny losing to Cotto means you went about as far as you can go up the ladder at welterweight. Are there other humongous fights at 140 and 147 for Manny, absolutely? Pick any top level name at those weights and he stands a good chance.
In like manner a loss by Cotto to the Pac-Man won’t be the end of his career either. In fact he has already beaten quite a few of the top togs and loved and respected by many throughout the world.
So what will make the difference in this fight?
Experts point out heart, the will to win, determination and all those catch phrases. In my opinion this fight will come down to two things: timing and positioning. Not timing like the timing of jab or positioning like ring generalship. The timing and positioning that I am referring to deals with portions of the fight.
When I consider matchups I assume the fight will go entire distance and based on that I section those matchups into three parts (beginning, middle and end). I do this when I break down fight films and when I am viewing several fight films to get a perspective on a fighter over a period of time. I looked at this fight from both perspectives.
The Beginning (first 4 rounds)
Both fighters are notorious and hellacious startup fighters. They don’t warm up or spend a lot of time trying to figure out their opponents. Based on this I think the first four rounds will be dangerous for Manny but more dangerous for Cotto. This is when Manny will be his freshest and will be all over the ring. Cotto will have to close the distance to land his trademark body shots and will put himself in high risk situations to do so.
Manny brings amazing speed to the table and though Cotto’s goal will be to match his speed I doubt he will be able to early on. If there is anything that Manny lacks, and he doesn’t lack much, is sustainable defense. Manny’s offensive zeal is his primary defense. Cotto will have to take a lot of Manny’s shots just to get in some quality body work early. I think he will.
The Middle (second 4 rounds)
After paying the price to land those body shots I won’t be surprised to see blood streaming down Cotto’s face but the effects of that body work will begin to show just a bit in Manny’s ability to move. Manny won’t become a bump on a log but the goal is to slow his movement down. His speed will still be there but his movement will have slowed just a bit and he will be more stationary. Not a lot but enough for Cotto to land some upstairs work.
The second half of the middle rounds (rounds 7 and 8) will be pivotal. Cotto, in the past, has been known to slow in these rounds. This is when Shane Mosley surged and Antonio Margarito put the preverbal nail in the coffin. If this fight can be likened to a crossroad then these rounds will be the crossroads of this fight. The question is circular. Either Cotto will have done in rounds 1-4 what he needed to do to slow down Manny or Manny will have totally and dominantly remained mobile.
The End (final 4 rounds)
At this stage fighters can barely understand what is being said to them in the corners. Not that they don’t want to listen but their ears are ringing, their hands are sore, their face hurts along with every other part of their body. Manny and Cotto will be in autopilot as their natural body reflexes and responses will have taken over. They will be totally locked into the flow of the fight. Thus it comes down to who wants it more? Manny or Miguel?
It’s no secret that these are the championship rounds. These rounds are where we see trainers in movies screaming and demanding of their fighters to dig deep, find more, and finish strong. If this fight is still going when the round 9 bell dings you will hear some of those same things.
So Who Wins?
You don’t punch with a puncher and you don’t box with a boxer. Manny brings a lot, almost everything, to the table but he is still the naturally smaller guy and Cotto must treat him as such. Manny needs space to land those quick combinations and if Cotto is going to win he must not give it to him. Cotto has to muscle him. Make it dirty. Make it nasty. Not foul type of nasty but in the trenches type of nasty.
Cotto can’t out speed or land quicker combinations than Manny. That’s Manny’s game and if he plays that game it will be a one-sided game at best. But he can cut the ring off make certain that if he is going to get hit in the head to get in close that he exacts his vengeance on Manny’s body once he gets there.
My pick, Miguel Angel Cotto.
Coach Tim Walker is a contributing writer for Eastsideboxing.com and his own blog at boxing4life.blogspot.com. For questions, comments or to suggest fighters for Weekly Stud please contact him at tpwalker@hotmail.com.