By – P.H. Burbridge – Possible history is fast approaching and it’s nice that a modern fight promotion isn’t built on fighters who spend the majority of their time trading insults or down playing each others accomplishments. Cotto and Pacquiao appear to hold each other in genuine high regard. Regardless of all the predictions and ranting by fans each man will be facing the best fighter either has ever crossed paths with. You can argue it back and forth but there is so much proof to support that statement that I’m completely comfortable in making it. Aside from the ever increasing antagonist vocal range of Freddie Roach this has been a pretty respectful build up as far as the fighters are concerned.
It kind of dispels the old myth that a successful boxing promotion needs negative sound bites and boorish behavior to sell. As a fan base we’re proving to be more sophisticated than people generally give us credit for. This fight will sell because the fans know the caliber of each guy. And that’s all we need! A fight like this doesn’t need a build up for hard core fight fans because it’s our drug..
For fans that prefer action over technical prowess this is the one! Or at least should be the one. As I said in previous articles I think this will be more controlled chaos than absolute chaos. But, regardless you know a fight between these two guys practically guarantees something electric is going to happen at some point. It has to.
So, what does the future hold for Manny Pacquiao win or lose come November 14th?
For Manny Pacquiao a win puts him in a class all by himself. He would have accomplished a feat that no boxer in the history of the sport has ever achieved and that’s winning a 7th championship in a 7th weight division. It’s a mark that you might not see equaled or broken in your life time. A feat that our grandchildren will marvel at. Much the way we marvel at Henry Armstrong’s feat of holding the featherweight, lightweight and welterweight titles simultaneously 70 years after the fact. People will similarly be talking about Manny’s accomplishment. Most of us will be long dead and gone and our ancestors will still be throwing this mans name around. Who knows maybe this accomplishment will become boxing’s version of Don Shula’s record in the NFL of most wins for a head coach. It might be damn near impossible to break. Shula was a head coach for over 30 years! In today’s age of one bad season and “there’s the door” it’s hard to imagine anyone being around long enough to even challenge him. Maybe the same will be true of a 7 weight division champion. In a sport that’s becoming increasingly more fiscally conservative and becoming far less historically adventurous who would even dare undertake such a lofty challenge? Especially, if it’s not in your best financial interest to do so. It may make more financial sense to stick around your division and defend your title. The circumstances would have to be just right to justify a move up and lets be honest we’ve just been lucky that those circumstances of late have suited Manny Pacquiao. I’m pretty confident that much of this happened in a natural unplanned manner. Obviously, Team Pacquiao were astute enough to identify the opportunities and capitalize but the landscape really suited Manny’s run at history. If Margarito was still on top at welterweight along with Paul Williams and maybe even Shane Mosley the chances of Manny moving up to challenge would have been highly unlikely. But, because Miguel Cotto is generally viewed as damaged on a number of levels Pacquiao and his people have based their run on that perceived weakness. The stars have aligned to make all this possible from Bob Arum representing both guys to Freddie Roach convincing himself this is the right guy at the right time.
If a fighter of the future were to attempt to duplicate or better this accomplishment it would require a well planned out professional agenda designed by a group of very talented people. Not to mention the fighter him self would have to be a one in a million type super talent. It’s not going to happen by accident and who would dare plan on the stars aligning like this again. A certain amount of luck also has to factor in and that’s something you simply can’t plan on.
But, at the end of the day it will take a complete team effort from Management to Promoter to Trainer to Lawyer to of course, one hell of a special Fighter.
We’re talking about a young fighter with Oscar De La Hoya type potential with the frame to start his career at an artificially low weight so he can build himself up not only physically but also evolve skill wise over a 8-10 year period. He’ll have to have the right mental make up from the start. No exception on that. You can kind of sense how huge an undertaking that would be when you factor in all the promotional strife and the political bureaucracy of professional boxing. One bad contract dispute with management or a promoter and you could throw the whole plan off course. What people don’t understand is that professional fighters are in the constant state of salvaging their careers. They rarely get the match up’s they want when they want them and they almost never get the full recognition they feel they deserve. That’s the real nature of the profession. Guys are always fighting for your respect and trying to prove themselves as great. But, also a professional fighter is in this game to make as much money as possible so if the financial rewards are not equal to the challenge of moving up his entire team will lobby against him doing so. Remember these guys are paid a percentage of the fighters purse so why move up 5-7 lbs for a lesser payday when you’ve got a guy in your current division who will bring you more $$. There are a number of scenarios that could make a multi divisional campaign unlikely especially when you consider today’s fistic career / market strategy. Being a top of the world professional fighter is much like being a hot Hollywood actor. One bad movie and it could be all down hill so you better believe his handlers will be doing everything in their power to keep their guy on the right path. That mere fact alone will practically guarantee that Manny will be “the only one” to hit this mark for a VERY long time!
Certainly there’s no one on the horizon today that has a real shot at it. Floyd Mayweather Jr has the distinction of being a 5 weight division champion but he would have to win the middleweight AND the super middleweight title just to match Manny. We all know that’s not likely and we also don’t expect Floyd to challenge for the 122 or 126 lb championships either.
Manny will be the MAN! Period!
What else could a win do for Pacquiao’s future? The real dream match for boxing fans is Pacquiao vs the aforementioned Mayweather. Everybody wants this fight. A win will do wonders for Manny in terms of his negotiating power. Not only will he be correctly advertised as the “draw” but he will also likely be defending his WBO title. He’ll be holding some very strong cards. The strongest possible. Chances are “Firepower” will bring in more revenue than Mayweather – Marquez so that too will add to his leverage and most certainly GET him a larger piece of the pie. I don’t think there’s anything Floyd can do realistically to change any of that. Pacquiao will have the upper hand. Floyd could use Shane as a bluffing point but it will be an empty threat. Pacquiao could also use Shane but I doubt he would get any traction either. Manny can also forget bluffing a Marquez fight especially after what Floyd did to him so in a sense Manny will also be stuck. Manny needs Floyd nearly as badly as Floyd needs him. Any other pay day would be a major step back from what they’ve both have grown accustomed to. Both sides will eventually have to come to an agreement and it will probably breakdown to Manny getting 55 percent to Floyd’s 45. There’s just too much money on the table for Mayweather to walk away plus I honestly believe Floyd looks at Pacquiao as a relatively sure win so he’ll make that deal even if it’s for slightly shorter money than Pacquiao. I don’t think Floyd will settle for anything less than 45 but I’m sure he’ll get some concessions with that percentage like ring size, etc….
For the fans the bottom line is a negotiation between these two is going to be a long drawn out tedious battle and it’s going to leave most of us frustrated until it finally gets done.
It will be a three ring circus but worth the wait because it will be advertised as the biggest blockbuster of all time and the Fight of THIS Century much like the first Ali – Frazier fight was for the last.
The build up is going to be a lot of fun and spark the most debate of any match up imaginable.
BUT, what happens if Pacquiao loses?
Obviously it will depend entirely on how he loses. If it’s by close decision chances are he’ll ask Bob Arum and Miguel Cotto for an immediate rematch which they will be only too happy to oblige in granting. Maybe that’s already part of their current agreement. But, this time the financial terms will be a little more favorable to Miguel Cotto. Draw-wise Manny Pacquiao will still be very much in the driver seat. Regardless of the outcome he’ll still be the bigger star with the bigger fan base. The historic 7th championship will obviously be just as important if he wins it in his 2nd attempt. He can still make his claim to history but it will just take a little longer to get there. That’s if he can actually beat Miguel. In order to generate public support Manny will have to have had enough moments in the fight to convince people he could reverse the result. There’s no shortage of things Roach will point to as contributing factors in the event of a loss. All the things that he is so casually dismissing now will come back up to rationalize this outcome. It’s part of our sport.
Roach has also done it before. He pointed to a number of issues after the first Morales fight that occurred during preparation that troubled him. I’d expect to hear the same thing here with the appropriate variation. In the Morales case, the bottom line was that Freddie was correct and people will want him to be correct again especially the hard core Pacquiao contingent. A tactical adjustment here or there and Pacquiao may be able to solve the riddle of Miguel Cotto. If anyone can identify and reconcile a tactical flaw in his fighter it’s Freddie Roach. So, a loss by decision is not necessarily the end of the story.
If Manny loses in fairly convincing fashion but does not incur any great long term physical trauma Roach will likely advise him to seek challenges south of the welterweight division. I think the Mayweather fight could still be on the table but obviously some of the shine will come off and his negotiating power will be significantly diminished.
If Pacquiao gets knocked out there’s a good possibility that Roach will recommend that he retire. Especially if he’s knocked out in damaging fashion. With the financial motive being removed from Manny’s agenda his hunger will be questioned not only by his trainer but by himself and they’ll have to determine if it’s in his best interest to fight on. The fights at 140 will be a huge step back in terms of prominence and the public desire for a third fight with Juan Manuel Marquez will be reserved for hard core fight fans only. If Pacquiao is knocked out in devastating fashion I’m pretty confident that Freddie Roach will steer him towards retirement. If Pacquiao does not agree with that as many a great fighter has not you may even see Roach let Manny continue his career without him. There’s a long history of famous and not so famous trainers choosing not to support a long time pupil after a devastating loss and showing their dissatisfaction by refusing to train them. It’s a painful separation because great trainers care about their fighters as if they were family members and don’t want to see them jeopardize their long term health. In this case, Manny is wealthy and a 6 weight division champion whose greatness is secured so there’s no point in going on. Pacquiao has nothing left to prove.
He’s had one of the great careers of all time by anyone’s standards and I believe at the end of the day Roach is a realist so he will not support another potentially damaging fight.
This is the most pivotal fight of Manny Pacquiao’s life and it will to a certain extent define his career.
In my opinion, a win means that he’s in the top 3 of all time while a loss means that he’ll be sharing a table in the Hall with Roberto Duran and Julio Cesar Chavez.
Only time will tell if future generations look back at this fight as a reasonable calculated risk or a terribly foolish miscalculation.
(Please feel free to contact P.H. Burbridge via email at PHBboxing@yahoo.com with any comments or feedback.)