by Erik Schaffer: This Saturday night Manny Pacquiao challenges Miguel Cotto for Cotto’s WBO welterweight title in Las Vegas, Nevada. Right now Pacquiao is a nice -260 favorite to beat the champion from Puerto Rico. And you can’t really make Pacquiao any less of a favorite after what these two fighters have done in their last few big fights.
Manny Pacquiao busted out in the boxing world after his big win over Oscar De La Hoya. Of course Pacquiao was already popular after beating Barrera, Morales and Marquez. But it was the win over Oscar that made him a boxing star. Then came a very big and quick KO win over Ricky Hatton who had never lost a fight at 140 pounds. As for Miguel Cotto, he was also racking up some very big wins before his last 2 big fights. But those last two big fights did not go his way. He suffered an 11th round TKO against Antonio Margarito and he won a very close split decision against Joshua Clottey in a fight where the boxing public called it a disappointing performance. But did he really look that bad in either of those fights against top quality fighters? I took Antonio Margarito must win by KO over Miguel Cotto in that fight. I just thought the stronger Margarito would be to much for Cotto. But Cotto kept that fight even until the end.. I took Cotto must win by decision against Clottey and that SD win would of been a UD had Cotto’s eye not start bleeding. I saw all I needed to see after the first two rounds to know that Cotto was back.
My point is that while Cotto had two close, very good fights with top prime fighters at 147 over the last two years, his opponent this Saturday night has not. That means that no way am I buying De La Hoya was ready to fight Manny at 147 that night. You can’t tell me that the De La Hoya who had close fights win or lose with Mosley, Trinidad, Vargas, Whitaker and was ever with Mayweather after 8 rounds was the same De La Hoya we saw against Pacquiao. And you can’t tell me that Ricky Hatton was the same fighter he was early on his career as he was when he fought Pacquiao. Not that Hatton was ever anything great, but he was much better before the Mayweather loss.
Of course, the odds makers in Vegas know all of this, but the public doesn’t. So Vegas goes ahead and makes Manny Pacquiao – 260 favorite to beat Miguel Cotto this Saturday night because they know all the mainstream fans in attendance and in Vegas will bet Pacquiao. By putting him at -260 they make it very difficult for the average person to play him. But the mainstream and wealthy people who will be in attendance Saturday night, who call themselves boxing fans, will have no problem dealing with a -260 favorite named Manny Pacquiao. This is one of the biggest over lays I have seen in boxing in a long time. No way should Pacquiao be this big of a favorite, but Vegas has no choice.
I know everyone sees the speed of these 2 fighters and thinks Cotto has no chance. But I see the underrated defensive skills of Cotto being the difference in this fight. I see Cotto moving and blocking, unlike De La Hoya and Hatton. Cotto will not be bullied by Pacquiao. Cotto will box and land power shots. Of course Manny will land his also, but they wont be hurting Cotto that much. That’s because if you can see the punches coming from Pacquiao you have a good chance to beat him. And I give Cotto a good chance Saturday night. Good enough to bet him. And I will gladly take Miguel Cotto as a + 250 dog in a fight where mainstream boxing fans and Manny Pacquiao will lose.
Prediction – Miguel Cotto to win against Manny Pacquiao