By P.H. Burbridge – Over the last 5 weeks or so I’ve fielded a number of emails from fans and writers alike who have shared their own take on how this fight could turn out. Some emails have been well thought out and supported with a great deal of detail. I appreciate all of them. Receiving feedback is the fun part of this gig because it makes you second guess yourself and forces you to look at things from a different perspective. It definitely helps in my writing because I’m forced to consider elements that I might ordinarily dismiss. It’s healthy to broaden your scope rather than just judging things based on your own experience.
Of all the emails regarding the outcome of “Firepower” there are two common scenarios that keep coming up. Those two scenarios will serve as the basis for this edition of Tactical Warfare.
Scenario #1: Manny will be too fast for Cotto!
No mystery there. This is the basis of most predictions that conclude in a win for Manny. Is Pacquiao faster than Miguel Cotto? Yes, but that’s the case in just about every single fight you’ll ever see. There’s always a guy who’s faster and a guy with heavier hands. The closest you’ll ever get to a sure thing is when a guy is faster and ALSO has the heavier hands. (You can probably throw in youth advantage too if you want) But, even THAT isn’t a 100 % money back guarantee when it comes to boxing.. Circumstance has a way of trumping conventional wisdom. Boxing is a complex set of principals that given the right situation the faster guy gets out angled by the slower one and the more powerful one gets pummeled by the faster one. Speed alone doesn’t win fights. It has to be coupled with the correct tactical plan and executed under the correct circumstances to be a true advantage. Generally speaking smaller fighter’s moving up in weight usually have a speed advantage over their larger opponents but as history has shown us once that smaller fighter starts taking those heavier shots the speed thing tends to balance out. The harder you get hit the more your stamina reserve is depleted and the more your reflexes are affected. It’s like jogging a certain distance with 2 ½ lb ankle weights on and then upping it to 5 lbs the next day over the same distance. You start to feel the fatigue earlier in the run and you definitely begin to operate at a slower pace. This is how it works in boxing and that’s why it is so difficult to successfully move up in weight.
Saying one guy is faster than the other is only useful when you factor in that fighter’s technical adaptability. If he doesn’t apply the right approach or if he reacts poorly in a certain situation his speed will become a mute point just like an opposing fighter’s power. Meldrick Taylor should have beaten Julio Cesar Chavez with his speed but he didn’t because he made a tactical error. Some fighters aren’t great at making adjustments in the ring and as soon as they get hit they start slowly reverting back to the tactical approach THEY feel most comfortable with. It’s human nature. It doesn’t always happen in an instant. It’s a gradual process over a period of rounds. If a fighter is getting slightly buzzed he will eventually go back to throwing what he feels is his most dangerous punch. It’s an unconscious reaction wired deeply in a fighters DNA for the purposes of self preservation. Now, to a large degree it doesn’t matter what his trainer says at this point because once the process starts it’s extremely difficult to stop. So, in the case of Meldrick Taylor instead of boxing and using his legs he started cranking his left hook at close range and in doing so gave Chavez unnecessary access to his body.
You already know how that story ended.
Now, is this something that Manny Pacquiao could find himself confronting against Miguel Cotto? If Manny finds himself taking harder shots than he anticipated it may be difficult for Roach to deter him from planting himself and returning fire. That instinct which is so deeply ingrained in great fighters is hard to turn off even when it’s clearly not in their best interest. It’s one of the key concerns when a fighter moves up in weight especially a fighter who considers himself a puncher. The main objective for Roach is to keep him out of those types of situations by utilizing the same in and out tactics he used against De La Hoya. It means a highly disciplined fight for Pacquiao. The style Pacquiao employed against David Diaz will not work against Miguel Cotto because where Diaz kept his hands high and attempted to get underneath Manny’s attack Cotto keeps his hands high and simply steps back or side to side. Diaz because he obscured his own vision couldn’t keep up with all the many angles Manny’s showed him. Every time he came back up Manny was attacking him from a different position. That’s why Pacquiao’s punch stats in that particular fight were through the roof. Miguel Cotto doesn’t offer that same look.
Cotto’s main goal will be to keep Manny in front of him and let Pacquiao come to him in spots. If Cotto is successful in keeping Pacquiao in front of him expect Manny’s speed to be less of an issue.
The real test for Pacquiao will come after 5-6 rounds when the initial energy levels start to diminish. As his movement tapers down and he starts sitting down on his punches a little more Cotto should see more opportunities. In the past it was clear that Manny owned the role of puncher and it was appropriate for him to exert his physical dominance in a stalking manner. In this case, he cannot allow himself to take that approach. Manny needs to embrace the role of boxer. He’s used to dictating terms with his power not with his boxing skill so if he finds out early that Cotto doesn’t appear to be troubled by his power or is having difficulty landing consistently he must stay committed to boxing even if it feels unproductive to him. Cotto too will eventually slow down and if Manny can avoid serious early exchanges his speed WILL take over once that happens. The only exception is if there are obvious signs that his punches are hurting Cotto early. But, even in that event he needs to be cautious because Cotto has shown tremendous recuperative powers. Hurting Miguel Cotto isn’t an automatic win as opponents have found out and in some cases turned out to be the worst thing that could have happened because it gave them a false sense of security that Miguel later exploited.
I’m comfortable that Pacquiao will be able to absorb Cotto’s shots early when his energy reserve is high but the mystery is how much will it take out of him? We’re not talking about Cotto landing bone crushing punches we’re talking about the run of the mill jabs and the occasional body shots. There’s no question that Manny’s going to get hit because Cotto is just too good not to land. He’s a world champion after all so you have to be realistic about that. What Cotto and Santiago will be looking to do is to make Pacquiao a one handed fighter by taking away his right hand and making him beat them with his left. A punch they feel he telegraphs. By winning the jab contest Cotto can cut Manny’s hand speed advantage in half. Pacquiao has never really developed his jab and uses his right to throw a looping hook which is his set up punch for the left hand. In a sense his right hook serves as a range finder much like an orthodox fighter would use his jab. His speed has allowed him to get away with that much like Roy Jones Jr got away for years with his fast lead left hook. But, it is a technical flaw nonetheless that Cotto might be able to exploit with his own jab. Cotto will look to stick his jab into Manny’s chest to offset his rhythm and force him to throw his left hand so he can counter with his own right. Manny will combat this by spinning to his own right to get a better angle for his left hand. This is where Pacquiao’s speed advantage will become apparent especially early. If Cotto cannot cut off the ring and close the distance in a sequence like that then Pacquiao will pot shot him all night long.
The intrigue lies in how Manny will hold up after a few rounds of receiving those heavier punches from a solid hard hitting welterweight. There’s no doubt in my mind that Pacquiao will win the first few rounds much like Taylor did against Chavez.
The question is at what price?
Will Manny have enough speed left after 5-6 rounds to out maneuver Cotto late or will the heavier shots take enough out of him to negatively impact his overall speed advantage?
Scenario #2: Miguel will be too strong for Pacquiao!
This seems to be the basis of nearly every prediction that concludes with a win for Miguel. Is Cotto stronger than Manny Pacquiao? Yes, but being the stronger guy is only useful if you can make consistent contact. Chances are Pacquiao will be able to absorb Cotto’s early salvos when his conditioning and his adrenaline levels are at its highest. The mere fact that Manny is getting hit by a guy with more power than he’s ever experienced should trigger a tactical adjustment which I’m positive he and Roach have on deck. Forget about all the rhetoric Roach has been spewing in cyber space about Manny knocking Miguel out. It’s just a form of physiological warfare that seldom works on world class fighters. Typically, it’s a way to send out misinformation for the purposes of gaining an advantage of some kind. In this case, Roach has recently stuck with the “Manny will knock him out” spiel because it sends a message that Pacquiao will attack Cotto. My knowledge of Roach tells me that attacking Cotto is the LAST thing they’ll do. The reasons are quite simple. First, if he attacked he would be placing himself within Cotto’s punching range which is counter productive to plan. All Roach’s recent comments are contrary to what I believe the actual fight plan is.
The real fight plan probably looks more like Leonard vs Hagler rather than Hagler vs Hearns.
It should be nearly identical to the plan Roach devised for Oscar De La Hoya but with a number of slight variations. The De La Hoya fight showed a more versatile Manny than people had previously seen. He BOXED beautifully and he was able to fight in the spots he wanted. Regardless of the Oscar was “dried out” rhetoric Manny still gave you a preview of the tactics he’ll use in this fight. Even if Oscar was at his best the fight plan was still correctly designed because it accounted for his size and his perceived power advantage. Now, if Oscar had not been affected by the weight it might have been less of an impressive showing for Manny but regardless it was still the right idea. AND, it’s the right idea for Cotto too. By using his legs and constantly moving Manny will avoid being hit solidly and more importantly will not be hit with any follow up shots up stairs. That’s really HIS strength. Manny rarely gets hit with two shots in a row up top. He feels the first shot and then he moves.
Team Cotto is aware that Pacquiao has shown the ability to handle singular head shots so their plan is just to land consistently in the hope that their heavier shots will pay off later in the fight. The power plan for Cotto is simple. Focus almost exclusively on the body early then in the middle rounds once the body work starts to take affect start mixing in shots upstairs and then shift the focus almost exclusively to the head down the stretch.
It’s the correct plan but a lot of things have to go right for Cotto in order for it to work.
What about Manny’s power you ask? Remember what he did to Ricky Hatton! Why wouldn’t Team Pacquiao apply a similar approach and potentially achieve similar results as they did in the Hatton fight?
Because Cotto doesn’t wrestle he punches!
Where Roach felt reasonably comfortable with Manny handling the mauling tactics of Ricky Hatton he understands that the same will not work against Miguel Cotto. Cotto is physically stronger than Hatton and when he’s on the inside he doesn’t grapple he fires shots to the body particularly with his left hook. Roach understood that Hatton only punched to the body AFTER he was engaged in a clinch. Hatton moves his opponent into his left hook almost by braille while Cotto simply fires his shots and that changes the whole dynamic. Manny wouldn’t be afforded the opportunity to tie up and spin Cotto the way he so successfully did against Hatton. The remedy is to move in and move out using feints and timing shots. Roach does not want Manny in clinches with Miguel Cotto. Cotto as he showed in the Joshua Clottey fight is more than capable of man handling a bigger fighter. Being manhandled that way would impact anybody’s energy level including Pacquiao. Keep spinning out of range, don’t go straight back and under NO circumstances allow your back to touch the ropes. Limit your exposure to those heavy body shots and maintain your energy reserve. Those are the keys for Manny.
If Cotto can’t get the first part of his plan off the ground then the rest will simply crumble making his power a mute point.
The mystery of Manny’s possible weakness to the body has been floating around for years and gets brought up much like the “Ghost of Margarito”. Many of the pro-Cotto emails pointed to sequences in the first and second Marquez fights as proof of Pacquiao’s weakness to the body. My response was that everyone shows the ill affects of body shots and in Pacquiao’s case he was able to maintain a solid work rate throughout. Obviously, the topic goes back to the strength of Miguel Cotto and how Pacquiao will be affected by similar shots being delivered by him as opposed to Juan Manuel Marquez. Many emails suggested that Roach validated Manny’s poor body shot resistance by making such a huge issue out of Cotto’s potential low blows.
Obviously, Freddie wanted assurances that Cotto would keep it clean and/or be penalized accordingly but some concluded that Freddie also wanted to make Cotto think twice about going to the body for fear that it might be perceived as a foul. In a sense he wanted to create hesitation in Cotto as well as raise the awareness of the referee / officials so that all body shots would be scrutinized just a little more closely. All of it directed at protecting Manny’s body. It’s not that far out of an argument when you consider the head games Roach likes to engage in using the press. But, it can also be innocently chalked up to a trainer performing his due diligence trying to protect his fighter from a momentum changing foul. He certainly has the right to raise that issue because Cotto does have a history of well timed low blows when he appears to be in some trouble.
Who knows maybe there’s some truth there but whatever the case Cotto would be well served to test that theory. He must stay committed to the body even if it gets him warned. Make Pacquiao begin to question it himself. Defending against an all out body attack may trigger Pacquiao to react in a manner that Roach does not want him to.
IF Manny falls back into his destroyer mindset in an attempt to thwart a body attack he will be playing right into Cotto’s hands. The more Manny sets down on his punches the more danger he’s in. He can render ALL of Cotto’s power punches useless by pivoting and spinning all night. If he stands in with an accomplished body puncher like Cotto he’ll be making a Taylor like tactical error. I believe there will be an internal struggle waging inside of Manny between the boxer and the puncher and depending on which side wins or how he reacts to the situation will dictate the outcome of this fight.
The epiphany of Saturday night will not be that Manny Pacquiao is so much faster than Miguel Cotto or that Miguel Cotto is so much stronger than Manny Pacquiao.
Those things will be factors but won’t determine the outcome of this fight.
The outcome will be determined by the more fundamentally sound fighter who stays committed and executes the tactics mentioned above.
Especially during moments of great adversity…..
And, I think we can expect both fighters to have an opportunity to do that!
(Please feel free to contact P.H. Burbridge via email at PHBboxing@yahoo.com with any comments or feedback.)