13.11.09 – By Vivek Wallace Few things in life require a man to sacrifice more than he truly has to give. Blood, sweat, and tears typically comprise the only true blueprint involved when trying to achieve such a great height, but with the stakes at an optimal level, perhaps even an occasional fear (or two) exist on such a list as well. In the careers of both Manny Pacquiao and Miguel Cotto, time and time again, these two men have found themselves against all odds. And time and time again they’ve found a way to not only respond, but subsequently silence their critics in return. The old adage according to modern day street vernacular is that “it ain’t where you’re from, it’s where you’re at”; but in the case of Filipino Manny Pacquiao, there’s simply no way to look beyond where he’s from, as that very upbringing is what is perhaps most attributed to a level of humility that helps him smile when there’s nothing to be happy about, as well as the ability to reflect on the days when he had less, despite a current life in which he could ask for no more. In the case of Miguel Cotto, there was no poverty, but despite the full refrigerator in his childhood kitchen, as well as the weight issues he developed as a result, his level of ‘hunger’ – as it relates to the sport – could be no greater, evidenced by his strong passion to rise to the top. Saturday night, these two men will climb into the ring with much on the line. In an effort to hone in on this epic battle, we take a look at their respective Keys to Victory, 4 key make-or-break elements to explore, and a final prediction:
MIGUEL COTTO: KEYS TO VICTORY
Conventional wisdom says that Cotto is more powerful than any other fighter Pacquiao has EVER faced in his career. That being said, it’s critical for Cotto to test his ability to take those shots immediately. Cotto will need to press the action and remind Pacquiao (like he has previously) that he’s no Oscar, Hatton, or Diaz. Defensively, Cotto has had major issues with allowing powershots. This means his defense could very well play a role in his durability, and ultimately, the fight itself. He’ll need to fight smart, avoiding the power of Pacquiao, and landing as much of his own as often as he can. Defense, dominance, and determination (to prevail despite the tenacity of his opponent) will dictate the outcome of this fight for him.
MANNY PACQUIAO: KEYS TO VICTORY
For Manny Pacquiao, he’ll need to follow the advice of cornerman Freddie Roach and start fast. The great thing about Pacquiao is that he’s never been one to participate in the whole ‘filling-out’ process, so revisiting his fast starting habits of the past will be precisely what the doctor ordered for him. Once he gets that ball rolling, Pacquiao will need to be careful not to allow his spirit to overtake him. Being the passionate fighter he is, Pacquiao tends to try to trade shots. That was a great plan against men who couldn’t hurt him. Against a man of Cotto’s caliber, being on the receiving end of one too many powershots could very well signal the end itself. If Pacquiao can keep these thoughts in mind, he’ll secure a very monumental moment in the history of the sport.
FOUR TO EXPLORE
LAMPLEY’S LINE: Within the first few seconds of Manny Pacquiao’s fight with David Diaz, HBO’s Jim Lampley asked a rhetorical question that will play a key role in Saturday night’s showdown. He said if he were David Diaz, his first question for Manny Pacquiao would be “did you train for body punches? Do you train to get hit in the gut?” Cotto’s no Diaz, but being one of the best body puncher in the sport today, there’s no question he’ll go there. If the fight is stopped early, will it be the result of a few trips to the Pacquiao ‘rib buffet’?
SPEED KILLS: We all know that Cotto has nullified the speed of guys like Judah and Mosley. What we don’t know is whether or not that nullification process is Pacquiao proof. Not only will Pacquiao be faster, but his vastly improved angles will assist him in delivering that speed. How will Cotto adjust?
PUT IT IN REVERSE: Rarely do we ever see Manny Pacquiao fight backwards. Many say that Cotto’s cornerman, Santiago is a rook, but on his worst day, he’s smart enough to know that he’ll need to change that. The only time Pacquiao even considers it is when his opponent gets aggressive, which is Cotto’s main agenda at all times. If Cotto is pressing the action, will Pacquiao play along, or learn real fast the art of fighting backwards? Either scenario won’t bode well for him, as fighting backwards will eventually land him where he doesn’t want to be. The ropes, or his back.
OUT OF SIGHT, OUT OF MIND: Manny Pacquiao has battled rumors of distractions more in this camp than any of the recent past. Not only are their rumors of political distractions, but it seems the fightin’ Filipino has gone a bit “Hollywood” as well. Not only is he acting, but singing, and plans are already in place for him to do a victory concert at the Mandalay Bay hours after the fight. We know he hadn’t been training for a while and was considered out of sight, but looking ahead like Cotto poses no threat, one can only wonder is he also out of his mind? And better yet, if he is, can he get back in it by fight time?
OFFICIAL PREDICTION
When I narrow this fight down, it appears a bit more simple than many of us in the media would like to think. At the end of the day, there are a few things that are quite hard to get beyond. When I analyzed the Margarito/Cotto showdown, I felt the only man that has a chance against Cotto is a man who can take his best and land better. That’s precisely what we saw. In Pacquiao, I see the same thing, and there are a few troubling signs to be weary of that set the stage. I’ve only heard a trainer come out and say that his fighter is getting hit in sparring with shots that “he doesn’t normally get hit with” twice before. Both times, both men, (Roy Jones and Jermain Taylor), fell hard in their very next fight. They say styles make fights…..but few ever note the fact that power has been known to end them…..relatively fast! Much like that Margarito/Cotto showdown, I see the “heavy” eating a lot of powershots and combinations while landing with enough power to eventually stop the better-but-smaller man. I would love to see Pacquiao win because a fight between he and Mayweather in the after-math of a victory of his over the welterweight king (Cotto) would be as huge as it can get. But, unfortunately, reality isn’t kind…it’s simply real!
MIGUEL COTTO KO 10th RD
(Vivek Wallace can be reached at vivexemail@yahoo.com, 954-292-7346, YOUTUBE (VIVEK1251), TWITTER (VIVEK747), Facebook, and Myspace).