By Paul Strauss: There’s much at stake in the upcoming matchup scheduled for February 5th, 2010 between Allan Green and Sakio Bika. According to comments made by promoter Lou Dibella to BoxingScene, the fight will be televised by Showtime from the Chumash Casino, Santa Ynez, Calif. Dibella added that the winner will step in for Jermain Taylor and fight middleweight champion Andre Ward on April 17th, 2010.
The timing is interesting, because the following night Showtime is scheduled to televise the big fight between Edwin Valero and Antonio DeMarco. Also, if the February 5th fight ends up being tough on the winner, then he will have little recovery time and a shortened new camp for the April engagement. If there’s an early knockout, then of course he will be sharp and rested for Ward..
Bika and Green are not hugely popular, but both do have a solid fan base. However, with the possibility of the winner gaining entry into the Super Six Tournament, there is a lot of pressure on both fighters. As far as the matchup is concerned, on the one hand you have The Ghost Dog or Sweetness, who is a taller, stand up, classic style fighter with the big knockout punch in either hand. His opponent, The Scorpion, will be giving up a couple of inches in height and reach. Bika has always been a very tough and determined opponent, who is awkward, but very strong and some say dirty fighter. He too can punch and has racked up 19 kayos in his 33 fights, and his losses have come against some pretty good competition.
His first loss was an MD to an equally awkward and very unorthodox fighter named Sam Soliman. Five years later in a rematch, he avenged that loss. He also might have been the victim of some good ole home cooking in the back yards of fighters in Indonesia and Germany where he experienced his two draws. The only other blemishes came in his losses to two champions, and one who is a certainty for induction into the hall of fame. That fighter is Joe Calzaghe. The other is current champion Lucien Bute. Those are pretty impressive credentials to say the least.
Green’s assortment of opponents isn’t as impressive, but he has only the one loss. That loss occurred in his fight with Edison Miranda. Green had the tough Miranda down but couldn’t put him away. The fight also came at about the time he was experiencing some serious health issues, which eventually resulted in surgery. In his last fight he didn’t dominate, but he was in there against a very clever undefeated fighter named Travis Simms.
One common opponent is Jaidon Codrington. Green destroyed Jaidon in 18 seconds of the first round. Sakio also stopped him, but not before being knocked down He had a tough time of it until he finally got to Jaidon in the 8th round. Interesting to note that Codrington and Green are about equal in size. That might turn out to be a factor, or it might not. The important thing is Jaidon was able to get inside Bika’s wider swings to land his telling shots. In retrospect Jaidon knows that he shouldn’t have let Bika draw him into a brawl, because Bika was just too strong for him. Also, when Jaidon got hurt, he didn’t know how to tie up the stronger man and regain his senses. Right up until the end the fight was exciting and could have tipped in either fighter’s favor
Green undoubtedly saw that fight, and has probably viewed film of it several times more to start formulating his game plan. Hopefully, his plan will include a way to avoid Bika’s head and wrestling tactics. Bika has certainly seen film of Green’s loss to Miranda, but it might not be as valuable to him as film of the Bika vs Codrington could be to Green. That’s because Green is not the same fighter as he was in that loss. He is healthier, smarter and has always been a student of the game. Look for him to come up with the better game plan.
In fact it might be a surprise to find out the Bika will formulate any kind of game plan unique to his match with Green. Rather, he will probably just plan to step things up more and get rougher as needed, even if that means taking more chances, employing more wild swings and lunging head first into the taller Green. His speed and strength have always helped him be successful with those tactics.
However, if Green is on his game, he will be able to get inside those looping punches and land some telling blows, especially with his beautiful left hook. Green is also a master at disguising his hook off of the jab, and if he gets Bika in trouble, it’s not likely he will let him off the hook as did Jaidon.
As you can see, this is a tough one to call. It should be a very exciting fight. Neither fighter has ever been stopped. They’ve both been in there with some pretty big punchers and survived, so this could end up being a war of attrition. If it is, it would probably favor the unusually strong Bika. Look for Green to pick up early on Bika’s mistakes and take advantage. If he doesn’t actually stop him early, he will hurt him enough to slow him down, which will force Bika to take even more chances and become even more vulnerable.
One other intangible is that Green’s win over Travis Simms made him champion of the then vacant WBO and NABO super middleweight titles. When fighters gain championships, it generally has a way of making them better fighters. They become more confident, and they also have something they want very much to keep, which makes them train harder and fight harder. It’s reasonable to expect that will be the case with Green. Place your money on Green, but keep it conservative. Don’t bet the farm.