By Vivek Wallace: In a sport known to pose more questions than answers, for one man, Saturday night, all questions will presumably be answered. The career of Puerto Rican sensation Miguel Cotto has been well chronicled, and despite the many highs, it’s the abysmal low points which have somewhat defined his tenure in the sport. In a recent one-on-one conversation with his trainer, the legendary Emanuel Steward, it was revealed that despite Cotto’s initial decline, a rematch with one of the two men who utterly humbled him would be necessary if he is to ever truly leave his footprint on the sport.
With Antonio Margarito looming in the backdrop, itching for a July 16th date date in New York City under the big lights, the only way for Cotto to avenge that great loss is to first pass this test. For a closer look at the test ahead, we shift the focus to Saturday night, honing in on “Keys to Victory”, “Four to Explore”, and an “Official Prediction”:
MIGUEL COTTO – KEYS TO VICTORY
For Miguel Cotto, keys to victory are quite simple, but habits of the past will probably make them extremely difficult. A close analysis of his fights against Pacquiao and Margarito displayed a common thread which can’t be denied. In both fights, Cotto did a very sound job out-boxing his opponents over the first few rounds. He was able to do this because over the course of that stretch he simply boxed. After suffering powershots which tested his courage and to a greater degree his heart, he abandoned that boxing gameplan and reverted to being the “bull”.
As Emanuel Steward recently stated, this may have worked against other men, but you have to be wise enough to abandon that platform when you have someone in front of you whom you simply can’t bully! Similar to Margarito and Pacquiao, Mayorga will be an opponent who has a chin to outlast him, and the power to hurt him. There are many things Cotto can do to win this fight, but if he isn’t able to swallow his pride and refrain from getting into a shootout, his chances of winning greatly diminish. Cotto will need to stay disciplined, keep a strong jab, and stay away from the ropes for long periods of time. If he can follow this blueprint, victory is his.
RICARDO MAYORGA – KEYS TO VICTORY
For Ricardo Mayorga, keys to victory come down to an element that technically starts well before he ever enters the ring come fight night. The biggest key for victory for Mayorga is conditioning. Many view the gutsy Nicaraguan as simply a journeyman, but you don’t shock the likes of Vernon Forrest (RIP) or come down to the wire with the likes of Shane Mosley without possessing some type of ability. The collective opinion surrounding Mayorga varies, but the one thing none of us can deny is that when he takes his craft seriously, he has proven to be a winner. Is he taking this fight seriously? Sporting his first six-pack since his showdown with Vernon Forrest (RIP) is all one needs to know to answer this question.
If Mayorga is in fact conditioned, he’ll need to use that conditioning to press the action for the full 12 rounds. Mayorga will need to refrain from being a standing target, letting his hands go at all times, particularly when his legs aren’t (moving). Cotto has shown a propensity for cutting, swelling, and bruising. Mayorga will need to bang him heavily at all ethical cost, pressing Cotto and keeping him uncomfortable, forcing him to get into a dog fight, which in essence will lead to more cuts and bruises. If Mayorga can keep Cotto uncomfortable and remain conditioned down the stretch, we’re in for a major shocker at the end of the night!
FOUR TO EXPLORE – (4 GAME CHANGERS/ELEMENTS TO WATCH FOR)
Black Eye, Blue Heart? – As previously noted, Miguel Cotto has a penchant for swelling and bruising. Although his defense has gotten slicker over the years, he still gets hit more than most would like to see. Few see Mayorga defeating him on points, but a bad cut or swell could force an early stoppage, and we have no idea who could be ahead on the scorecards when such a thing happens. If it goes down after the 4th round, we’ll go to the scorecards, and I don’t think that helps Cotto at all. Will his body hold up in this type of fight?
Checkers or Chess? – When you look at Ricardo Mayorga’s record, if you color code the wins and losses from 2003 to current, you’d get an appearance similar to that of a checker board, as the gritty Nicaraguan has never done either, (win or lose), consecutively since that time. Every win was followed by a loss and vice versa. Coming off a win over a cupcake last December, can stay strong enough in the mind to FINALLY piece together two in row? Or will history resolve this mystery?
A ‘Change’ We Can Believe In? – President Barack Obama became a transcendent figure in the political landscape by selling the public on a “change they can believe in”. Similar to the land of politics he dwells in, the world of boxing can often present scenario’s that appear one way, yet remain another. In the case of Puerto Rican Miguel Cotto, the man who once engineered his career (uncle Evangelista Cotto) is absent, while present is a legendary figure known for breathing life into men who were presumed athletically dead. Has the fundamental technique of Steward truly erased flaws of Cotto’s past? With only one prior fight together, this question has never been more prominent!
Within Grasp or Out of Reach? – Ricardo Mayorga has never lost to a shorter fighter or an opponent with lesser reach. Miguel Cotto is no ordinary fighter, but to get a victory, he’d have to do something no other man has done. For Mayorga, the intent is to make this a career elevating victory, while Cotto finds himself in a similar position. We know only one man can win, so considering that both are “within grasp”, the operative question is: which man is truly “out of reach”? Mayorga’s history says one thing…..Cotto’s ability says another. Stay tuned to find out.
OFFICIAL PREDICTION/UPSET BAROMETER: (RATING 1 – 5)
When the dust finally settles and the bell rings, I think the action that unfolds will have many of us watching intensely in disbelief. On paper it’s Miguel Cotto’s fight to win, but as we all know, paper burns! Many questioned what Cotto had left after the severe beating he took at the hands of Mexican Antonio Margarito. Whatever remnants of heart may have remained were completely demolished at the hands of Filipino native Manny Pacquiao. Against Yuri Foreman, Cotto looked better, but he was stunned multiple times and few realized it came at the hands of a fighter who had only registered 8KO’s in 27 prior attempts.
In separate conversations, both Oscar Dela Hoya, as well as Shane Mosley spoke of how Mayorga’s punches were so “dangerous”, because they never came from an angle you could detect, and the toughest punches to handle are generally the ones you don’t see coming. Oscar went as far as explaining how difficult it was to stay in a rhythm, because when he landed, he would literally move you from your position. Although Cotto was big at ’47, no question, he’s barely average in size at ’54, and the man he’ll stand across from has hurt some of the biggest 154lber’s in his era. I see Cotto being battered and bruised, and in the end, I see controversy.
COTTO VIA QUESTIONABLE DECISION IN EARLY CUT STOPPAGE (RD9) THAT WILL GO TO THE SCORE CARDS (UPSET BAROMETER: Will peak at 4 OF 5 – as a conditioned Mayorga can clearly score the upset).
(Vivek Wallace can be reached at vivexemail@yahoo.com, 954-292-7346, Youtube (VIVEK1251), Twitter (VIVEKWALLACE747), Skype (VITO-BOXING), & Facebook)