By Anthony Coleman: It has been well over two years since Shane Mosley’s last truly dominant performance. When he stepped into Los Angeles’ Staple Center in January of 2009 against the universally regarded best Welterweight in the sport, Antonio Margarito, he was a heavy underdog. Mosley looked like an old fighter in a close ugly fight against a faded Ricardo Mayorga (a fight in which he literally scored a KO at the very last second).
Conversely Margarito was still basking in the accolades of his defining victory: coming from behind on the judges cards, while shrugging off bruising punches from Miguel Cotto, to finally chop him down and score a thrilling 11th round TKO. Mosley was viewed as beingtoo old and tired to defeat the huge, relentless, nearly indestructible, power punching WBA Welterweight champion. There was the question whether or not Mosley would even hear the final bell.
Of course Shane proved me and practically all of the boxing world wrong as he was able to put on the greatest display of pure boxing in his hall of fame career, dominating and finally stopping Margarito in the 9th round. Much of the victory has been overshadowed by the revelation of Margarito and his cornermen loading his gloves with Plaster of Paris in their dressing room before the contest, but it shouldn’t take away from one of the finest victories in Mosley’s career. Tomorrow night he once again steps into the ring as a sizeable underdog, this time against living legend Manny Pacquiao. However, circumstances are different from January 2009, as a lopsided decision loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and a questionable draw to Sergio Mora has left many to speculate that Shane, who will turn 40 in a few short months, is a spent bullet and that he is making one final, highly improbable last shot at glory in his Hall of Fame career. However, there is a small chance that Mosley could win this fight.
The elements to a Mosley victory comes down to what were always his calling card: speed, power, and timing. One year ago, Mosley was able to badly stun Floyd Mayweather in the second round with a lead right hand. Mayweather had to hold on the entire round so he wouldn’t go down and at times it looked like he was ready to go as he took more punches in one round than he did his entire career. Of course Mayweather regained his footing in the third and was able to win at least nine of the next ten rounds and scored a very clear decision victory. Yet that one round and spurts throughout the fight showed that within the 147 Pound division, he still could punch with power and does still possess good handspeed. Even in the fight with Mora, while he didn’t seriously hurt him, he was able to time him with lead rights and left hooks and made him respect his power whenever he landed cleanly. Yet there is a major stylistic difference that Manny presents to Mosley that both Mayweather and Mora didn’t: aggressiveness.
Despite cleaning up his defense over the past 5 years and doing a much better of maintaining his balance and resetting after throwing his punches, Pacquiao can still be hit cleanly and at times fairly often because he is so willing to engage and throw five to eight power shot combinations at a time.
In the fights against Cotto, Marquez, Clottey, and even in moments against Margarito, they were able to land cleanly with hard snapping shots to his head and body. Of course those bouts were all, with the exception of the disputed Marquez victory, easy victories for the “Pac-Man,” but it still is visual evidence of the defensive holes he leaves behind for his opponents that those boxers were all able to capitalize on when they decided to exchange. Also consider the fact that while he wasn’t hurt by Cotto, Margarito, and Clottey, he was stunned by Marquez in their rematch when the Mexican ring technician timed him with his counter right hand and left hook. Of course Mosley, even at his peak, was never as good of a counter puncher as the now 37 year old Marquez still is, but he was a skilled counter puncher in his own right and keeps some of that ability in his arsenal. If he can catch an aggressive Pacquiao coming in cleanly, and he certainly will have the opportunity, he could hurt him and possibly finish him off; something he wasn’t able to do against Mayweather. Of course that is a big “What if?” But it is certainly a realistic possibility. With that being said I will side with the vast majority of ringside experts and fans and pick Pacquiao via a wide decision or a possible late round KO.
When it gets right down to the facts, Pacquiao is still the most dangerous offensive fighter in the sport because of his speed, power, and variety of punches he throws. None of his opponents over the past 8 or 9 years, even in his last defeat in his first fight with Erik Morales, have shown the ability to stop his offense once he finds his rhythm. Plus at 32 he still retains much of his athletic ability that has made him a superstar for a decade. On the other side of the coin Mosley has shown clear signs of decline.
While he still has fast hands, he is unable to fight every minute of the round. The days of him throwing those impressive 5 punch combinations are gone replaced by single power shots. It also must be said that his footwork, once one of the devastating highlights of his arsenal, was noticeably sloppy in the Mora fight. He was often chasing Mora and never able to cut him off, then set his feet and dig in with shots to the head and body. He was often lunging off balanced. Finally, the defining and most important reason why when the final bell is rung it will probably signal another Pacquiao victory: Mosley’s defense has fallen off a cliff into the bottom off the river.
Mosley was never a great defensive fighter in his youth, but age has truly robbed him of his ability to react and slip most power shots. He simply takes way too many blows and Manny will be able to get to him…A LOT. If Mosley isn’t able to take him out within the first couple of rounds he is probably going to be overwhelmed and weakened by Pacquiao’s combos. This has a better than 50 percent chance to turn the ugly one-sided beating that Pacquiao inflicted on Cotto and Margarito. Yet as stated, I am not totally counting Shane out and there is a small, but realistic glimmer of hope for him to once again prove his skeptics wrong.