By Vivek Wallace: (Live from Las Vegas MGM Grand) – So far in 2011, the sport of boxing has seen some very unlikely hero’s who once remained deep beyond the shadows of doubt suddenly emerge as show-stoppers. Nobuhiro Ishida, Victor Ortiz, Marco Antonio Rubio, and Orlando Salido were all men who vowed to make the most of golden opportunities presented to them, and when the headlines printed the following morning, there were no silver-linings for the men they faced.
As startling as those results were, none would exceed the level of excitement and disbelief rendered if the sports P4P king, Filipino phenom Manny Pacquiao were to take such a fall from grace this evening; however, the man who will stand across from him without doubt will possess a greater shot at an upset than most around the sport seem to think, with a demonstrated history that shows precisely how it could be made possible. As we hone in on what will go down as the “Fight of the Year”, we take a look at the two men who will bring the action to us, starting with the “Keys to Victory”, “Four to Explore”, and an “Official Prediction”:
MANNY PACQUIAO – KEYS TO VICTORY
For Manny Pacquiao, seizing victory in tonights fight will all come down to two things: His ability to avoid unncessary punishment and his ability to pace himself. Most seem to think that Mosley’s only shot at victory will come early in the fight; but history tells us that anyone boasting the type of energy and durability displayed by Pacquiao is nearly impossible to stop early, yet the deeper things go, anything is possible. When you consider this reality, It is no secret that Pacquiao will need to remember that cumulative damage will be his biggest enemy, and understanding how to reduce early damage sustained will be his biggest challenge.
What makes this a dangerous fight for Pacquiao is the fact that in Mosley, even at the ripe age of 39, you have the first fighter in a very long time with the ability to present him with a dose of his own medicine. Normally it’s Pacquiao who owns the element of surprise, ripping thunderous shots that catch an opponent who rarely sees them coming. Cotto was deceptively fast, but his shots are more telegraphed. Clottey, Hatton, Margarito and Oscar all had speed, but were more of the same. Shane brings the power to hurt Pacquiao, and the speed to keep a few of those bombs under the radar.
We’ve seen Marquez, Cotto, and Margarito each stun Pacquiao in spurts, so one has to wonder what happens when a more destructive shot lands that he doesn’t see coming. If Pacquiao can remove himself from this equation by using good movement throughout the fight, pace his action to remain fresh late, and avoid laying on the ropes for sustained periods, he can hit the cruise control button, as it will be another day at the office en route to an easy victory.
SHANE MOSLEY – KEYS TO VICTORY
For Mosley, seizing victory tonight won’t be as simple, although two things in the Naazim Richardson playbook can make this a far easier night than anyone could imagine. Pacquiao has always had the luxury of roaming about freely, with little resistance throughout a fight. What happens against someone bigger who has enough speed to land a few wicked bombs, enough wit to wrap him up when he tries to respond, and enough size to lay on him and squeeze air from those lungs?
So much is made about the fact that Pacquiao has faced men who are bigger than him, yet none of these bigger men have imposed their size on him. There’s a reason we’ve seen great heavyweights like Lewis, the Klitschko’s, and others take advantage of the size differential, and it’s quite puzzling why the Margarito’s of the world have failed to execute this plan against Pacquiao. As great as Pacquiao is, what makes him greater is that he has accomplished so much as a one-trick pony. There’s no startling jab. There are no extra’s.
What makes him dangerous is angles and rapid combinations alone, and if one can tie him up and remove this from the equation, Pacquiao would have to produce a plan B that some are not so sure he has. If Mosley can adapt a strategy like this, landing that powerful overhand right after a pausing jab, then clinching or twisting Pacquiao (like we see with the Klitschko’s and Hopkins from time to time) to break the rhythm of his onslaught, this will be an easier night for him than anyone knows. Stamina will also play a key role, as Mosley will need to have the energy to complete the job he’ll probably start early, as he lands a number of those same powershots that could eventually end it all late.
FOUR TO EXPLORE – (4 CRITICAL GAME CHANGING ELEMENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE FIGHT)
‘THE MARQUEZ FACTOR’: It comes as no surprise that Juan Manual Marquez has been the most difficult puzzle for Pacquiao to solve. The irony here is that, after hours of film study, one can’t possibly find a more similar template in a fighter than Shane Mosley. Everything from the ‘hit-me-and-I’ll-hit-you-back’ type grit, to the body-head combinations, and beyond. Where the plot thickens is that Mosley is a bigger, faster, and stronger version whose durability is far greater. This is important because the only thing that separated Marquez and Pacquiao are the knockdowns. Without the knockdowns, what can we expect in the end tonight?
‘DOWN & UP OR DOWN AND OUT’: Pacquiao has only been down a few times in his career, but the two times his back actually touched the canvas he failed to finish the end fights, losing by KO. In the case of Mosley, each time he touched the canvas, he fought on, yet loss each encounter. Tonight, it’s very feasible to say that one or both of these men will touch the canvas. That being said, who will break their trend of the past and find a clear path to victory in the present?
‘BATTLE CRY’: Over the years, we’ve seen Manny Pacquiao take on the likes of Barrera, Morales, Marquez, Hatton, Oscar, Cotto, Margarito, and the list goes on. Through it all, we’ve seen him conquer a countless amount of warriors, but there could lie the problem, as each of the battles were nothing short of absolute wars! Although Shane has been in some wars himself, Pacquiao has been in far more, and most have come lately. For so long he’s used that tiny, yet muscular and greatly durable frame to do the impossible. Could tonight be the night his body finally tells him “no mas”?
‘HEAR NO EVIL, SEE NO EVIL’?: Of all the theories presented around the sport on how this battle will end, none seem to take into account an angle that’s clearly inevitable. That angle? Bad cuts and deep bruises, which will come considering the sheer volume of punches to be thrown and the velocity in which they’ll come from. Mosley is known to swell around the eyes, and Pacquiao is known to not only swell, but also has scar tissues on an eyebrow that is bound to re-open. When you consider this reality, one must realize, although we haven’t “heard” this evil from many others around the sport, we will definitely “see” it in the end. Unfortunately, one of these two men may not see it coming, because one is bound to swell and lose sight. Which mans ‘vision’ will lose sight by the end of the night?
OFFICIAL PREDICTION & UPSET BAROMETER (RATING 1-5)
As early as June of 2009 I spoke of this potential showdown and stated that despite the interest in a Mayweather/Pacquiao showdown, this will be the better matchup. Pacquiao/Mayweather will be a game of chess, filled with strategical thinking. Tonight we get Checkers….a very simplified version of hit and be hit. And by the end of the night, I have no doubt it will go down as the “Fight of the Year”, as neither man will come to lay down. After analyzing the fight and completing film study, a few things became very evident and have reformed an opinion I’ve held for quite some time.
The biggest questions surrounding Mosley have been his age. Practically every fan and media personality claim to view him as the concise winner had this fight taken place years ago. When you look at the last few Mosley efforts, we view them as very marginal, yet few stop realize that he trained 6 weeks for Berto, the fight fell apart; three weeks later he went into an 8wk training camp for Mayweather, and 45 days or so later, he entered another 8wk training camp for Mora. Any man that trains approximately 22 out of 27 weeks at age 39 is bound to look 49.
Tonight, I think the workrate of Pacquiao will be too much, but noticing the similarities of Mosley and Marquez, I think there will come points where Mosley will be able to land thunderous shots that not only hurt Pacquiao, but eventually send him to the canvas. Every time Pacquiao throws the left hand he leaps in, and is wide open for a right hook. When Cotto and Margarito landed at this point, each paused out of fear of return fire, rather than following up. What made Marquez effective is that he actually followed up, resulting in near knockdowns. Mosley’s power and speed makes him the proverbial “Marquez on steroids” (Pun intended – to quote a fight fan).
The key here is that the most ineffective fighter Pacquiao has faced in his rise to fame (Clottey) did the most physical damage because he had the heaviest fist. Mosley will exchange more, going into deeper water, and catching the bigger prize! I see Mosley taking advantage of a smaller fighter who won’t run or play possum, and hitting paydirt in the end. The safe and sexy pick is Pacquiao, but in a year like 2011 where anything has been possible, I think the boxing world will again see a shake up, this time of epic proportions. I hope I’m wrong, and usually I am with him, but for only the 4th time in his career, I’m willing to gamble on the opponent.
MOSLEY VIA 12TH RD TKO (STOPPAGE DUE TO CUTS) – (UPSET BAROMETER PEAKS AT 5 OF 5 – AS PACQUIAO WILL WIN IF UNCUT IN THE END).
(Vivek Wallace can be reached at vivexemail@yahoo.com, 954-292-7346, Youtube (VIVEK1251), Twitter (VIVEKWALLACE747), Skype (VITO-BOXING), and Facebook).