.jpg)
By John Gabriel Thompson – As WBA Super World Super Middleweight Champion Andre Ward (23-0, 13 KO’s) and former IBF Middleweight Champion “King” Arthur Abraham (32-2, 26 KO’s) meet at the Home Depot Center in Carson, California this Saturday, the question arises: does Abraham even have a chance? At the stage of the Showtime Super Six Super Middleweight Tournament featuring six of the worlds’ premier super middleweights, Ward is unquestionably in the lead with resounding victories over Mikkel Kessler (the original favorite to win the tournament) and Allen Green (a replacement for Jermaine Taylor). In sharp contrast, after knocking out Jermaine Taylor in the twelfth round of a fight in which Abraham was losing, Abraham went on to be disqualified against Andre Dirrell and to lose a unanimous decision against WBC Super Middleweight Champion Carl Froch. Not only did Abraham lose these fights, but he was completely dominated by the quick and elusive Dirrell prior to the disqualification and he was out-boxed and essentially man-handled by Froch.
With Abraham showing that he can be out-boxed by the likes of Taylor, Froch and Dirrell what chance does he have against someone with Ward’s abilities? Ward was a decorated amateur champion with a record of 114-5 and he was the 2004 Light Heavyweight Olympic Gold Medalist. This is not to say that Ward is better than Froch or Dirrell (though we may get to find out if Froch meets Ward in the final), however, Ward clearly fights with a similar speed and style to Dirrell. Not just that, but Ward will certainly follow the blueprint laid out to him. Also going against Abraham is Ward’s size advantage. Not only is Ward three inches taller with a longer reach, Ward is a natural super middleweight whereas Abraham has only recently moved up from middleweight in order to compete in the tournament..
Ward seems to come in to each fight with a different game plan. He can stick and move, beating his opponent to the punch, as he did in the fight against Kessler. But he can also brawl and fight on the inside as he showed against Allan Green. Against Abraham, his options seem limited. He will almost certainly stick and move as Dirrell did for eleven rounds, because if Ward tries to brawl or fight on the inside, he could wake up without his belts.
The only chance Abraham has is his power. Being down on points, he needed a knockout to beat Taylor, and he got it with such ferocity that Taylor was taken to a hospital after the fight to be treated for a concussion. Being down on points, Abraham needed a knockout to beat Dirrell, and though his blow was illegal, it was certainly damaging; Dirrell has since removed himself from the tournament citing medical problems in the form of headaches, which could well have resulted from Abraham’s thunderous shot to the temple of Dirrell’s head. True, had Dirrell not slipped, Abraham may never have caught him with a clean shot, but the point is the power Abraham possesses. Abraham won his first fourteen straight fights via knockout and only six of his thirty two victories went the distance.
We have yet to see Ward’s chin truly tested, and though he has been in against big punchers like Edison Miranda and Allan Green, they were not able to connect cleanly against Ward. And therein lies the reality of this match – unless Ward makes a mistake, it seems highly unlikely that Abraham will catch him with anything meaningful. Abraham has never been stopped, and Ward is not a power puncher, so if you’re betting on this one, I’d go with Ward by a unanimous twelve round decision.